San Diego State at Central Michigan Week 5 College Football Matchup San Diego State at Central Michigan Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · 🏟 Kelly/Shorts Stadium Mount Pleasant, MI · Turf · 32,885 cap
San Diego State✈ 1,893 mi+3 hr TZ
21 22
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
22
CMU -2.5
Central Michigan
28
P&R Line Central Michigan -5.5
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Central Michigan -2.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Central Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Central Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Central Michigan wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Central Michigan -2.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Central Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Central Michigan 2nd straight Home Game 🛋 San Diego State Coming off BYE
San Diego State 2024 Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.5L0–2154.5L0–21UN
Sat 9/14San Diego State at California+18.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.5L21–2247.5L21–22UY
Sat 10/5San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.5W27–2447.5W27–24OY
Sat 10/12San Diego State at Wyoming+1.5W27–2443.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26San Diego State vs Washington State+17.0L26–2956.5L26–29UY
Fri 11/1San Diego State at Boise State+24.5L24–5655.5L24–56ON
Fri 11/8San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.5L16–2165.5L16–21UN
Sat 11/16San Diego State at UNLV+22.0L20–4155.5L20–41OY
Sat 11/23San Diego State at Utah State+5.0L20–4160.0L20–41ON
Sat 11/30San Diego State vs Air Force+6.5L20–3143.5L20–31ON
Central Michigan 2024 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut-33.5W66–1054.5W66–10OY
Sat 9/7Central Michigan vs Florida International-3.5L16–5251.5L16–52ON
Sat 9/14Central Michigan at Illinois+21.5L9–3049.5L9–30UY
Sat 9/21Central Michigan vs Ball State-6.5W37–3451.0W37–34ON
Sat 9/28Central Michigan vs San Diego State-2.5W22–2147.5W22–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Central Michigan vs Ohio+3.0L25–2750.5L25–27OY
Sat 10/19Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan+3.5L34–3852.5L34–38ON
Sat 10/26Central Michigan at Miami (OH)+10.5L7–4648.5L7–46ON
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/5Central Michigan vs Bowling Green+14.5L13–2347.5L13–23UY
Tue 11/12Central Michigan at Toledo+15.0L10–3752.5L10–37UN
Tue 11/19Central Michigan vs Western Michigan+6.0W16–1456.0W16–14UY
Sat 11/30Central Michigan at Northern Illinois+16.5L16–2441.5L16–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Central Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Central Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Central Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State #108
+0.335
Central Michigan #96
+0.376
Central Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+0.434
Central Michigan #129
+0.328
San Diego State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State #131
0.119
Central Michigan #45
0.176
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Central Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+7.044
Central Michigan #80
+8.100
Central Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State #120
+0.774
Central Michigan #115
+0.847
Central Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State #28
69.0
Central Michigan #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
2.6
Central Michigan
-4.9
Offense Rating
San Diego State
15.6
Central Michigan
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
Central Michigan
20.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Central Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #77
0.00
Central Michigan #90
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #86
0.50
Central Michigan #102
1.33
Central Michigan +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Central Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
25.3
Central Michigan #1
33.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #114
55.5
Central Michigan #126
52.0
Central Michigan +8.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Central Michigan. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Lewis Yr 1 #1
DC Eric Schmidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
29–28 (51%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Jim McElwain Yr 1 #1
DC Robb Akey Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself