Sat, Sep 7 2024
·
Week 2
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Pitbull Stadium
Miami, FL
·
Turf
·
23,500 cap
Central Michigan✈ 1,256 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Central Michigan wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Central Michigan -3.5
O/U 51.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Central Michigan 2024 Schedule
Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut | -33.5W66–10 | 54.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Central Michigan vs Florida International | -3.5L16–52 | 51.5 | L16–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Central Michigan at Illinois | +21.5L9–30 | 49.5 | L9–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Central Michigan vs Ball State | -6.5W37–34 | 51.0 | W37–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Central Michigan vs San Diego State | -2.5W22–21 | 47.5 | W22–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Central Michigan vs Ohio | +3.0L25–27 | 50.5 | L25–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan | +3.5L34–38 | 52.5 | L34–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Central Michigan at Miami (OH) | +10.5L7–46 | 48.5 | L7–46 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/5 | Central Michigan vs Bowling Green | +14.5L13–23 | 47.5 | L13–23 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/12 | Central Michigan at Toledo | +15.0L10–37 | 52.5 | L10–37 | U | N |
| Tue 11/19 | Central Michigan vs Western Michigan | +6.0W16–14 | 56.0 | W16–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Central Michigan at Northern Illinois | +16.5L16–24 | 41.5 | L16–24 | U | Y |
Florida International 2024 Schedule
Florida International's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Florida International at Indiana | +20.5L7–31 | 50.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Florida International vs Central Michigan | +3.5W52–16 | 51.5 | W52–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Florida International at Florida Atlantic | +3.5L20–38 | 44.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida International vs Monmouth | -12.5L42–45 | 59.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida International vs Louisiana Tech | +2.0W17–10 | 49.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/8 | Florida International at Liberty | +15.5L24–31 | 56.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/16 | Florida International at UTEP | -7.0L21–30 | 47.0 | L21–30 | O | N |
| Tue 10/22 | Florida International vs Sam Houston | +5.0L7–10 | 47.0 | L7–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 10/29 | Florida International vs New Mexico State | -7.0W34–13 | 43.5 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Florida International at Jacksonville State | +12.5L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Florida International at Kennesaw State | -9.0L26–27 | 42.5 | L26–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida International vs Middle Tennessee | -9.5W35–24 | 50.5 | W35–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Central Michigan Edge
Central Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Central Michigan Edge
Central Michigan +82.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida International
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida International
84.9 — 6.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida International won by 36
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Central Michigan
Jim McElwain #1
29–28 (51%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Jim McElwain
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robb Akey
Yr 3
#1
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
David Yost
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jovan Dewitt
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓