Sam Houston at Jacksonville State Week 13 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at Jacksonville State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 JSU Stadium Jacksonville, AL · Turf · 24,000 cap
Sam Houston✈ 609 miSame TZ
11 21
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
25
Jacksonville State
31
P&R Line Jacksonville State -6
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Jacksonville State -5.5 · O/U 57.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Jacksonville State, while Game Control favors Sam Houston. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Sam Houston wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -5.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Jacksonville State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Jacksonville State 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Sam Houston 2nd straight Road Game
Sam Houston 2024 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Sam Houston at Rice+9.5W34–1449.0W34–14UY
Sat 9/7Sam Houston at UCF+21.5L14–4553.5L14–45ON
Sat 9/14Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.5W31–1348.5W31–13UY
Sat 9/21Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.5W31–1144.5W31–11UY
Sat 9/28Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.0W40–3955.0W40–39OY
Thu 10/3Sam Houston at UTEP-10.0W41–2149.5W41–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/16Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.5L14–3155.0L14–31UN
Tue 10/22Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.0W10–747.0W10–7UN
Tue 10/29Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.5W9–345.5W9–3UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.0W23–1742.5W23–17UN
Sat 11/23Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.5L11–2157.5L11–21UN
Fri 11/29Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.5W20–1847.5W20–18UY
Thu 12/19Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.5W31–2648.0W31–26OY
Jacksonville State 2024 Schedule
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Jacksonville State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #115
+0.242
Jacksonville State #22
+0.384
Jacksonville State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #114
+0.342
Jacksonville State #35
+0.391
Jacksonville State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #58
0.167
Jacksonville State #66
0.162
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Sam Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #129
+6.786
Jacksonville State #3
+8.687
Jacksonville State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #107
+0.825
Jacksonville State #35
+0.869
Jacksonville State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #37
69.6
Jacksonville State #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Sam Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Jacksonville State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.2
Jacksonville State
-2.7
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
Jacksonville State
14.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.8
Jacksonville State
17.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #35
0.90
Jacksonville State #76
1.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #25
0.50
Jacksonville State #33
0.40
Jacksonville State +0.70
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Sam Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
50.7
Jacksonville State #1
50.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #39
31.7
Jacksonville State #50
32.9
Sam Houston +0.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
88–36 (71%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 2 #1
DC Skyler Cassity Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
18–6 (75%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 2 #1
DC Luke Olson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself