Sat, Nov 23 2024
·
Week 13
·
🏟 JSU Stadium
Jacksonville, AL
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Sam Houston✈ 609 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Jacksonville State,
while Game Control favors Sam Houston.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Sam Houston wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -5.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Jacksonville State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Sam Houston 2024 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Sam Houston at Rice | +9.5W34–14 | 49.0 | W34–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Sam Houston at UCF | +21.5L14–45 | 53.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Sam Houston vs Hawai'i | -3.5W31–13 | 48.5 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Sam Houston vs New Mexico State | -15.5W31–11 | 44.5 | W31–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Sam Houston vs Texas State | +11.0W40–39 | 55.0 | W40–39 | O | Y |
| Thu 10/3 | Sam Houston at UTEP | -10.0W41–21 | 49.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/16 | Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky | -1.5L14–31 | 55.0 | L14–31 | U | N |
| Tue 10/22 | Sam Houston vs Florida International | -5.0W10–7 | 47.0 | W10–7 | U | N |
| Tue 10/29 | Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech | -10.5W9–3 | 45.5 | W9–3 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Sam Houston at Kennesaw State | -21.0W23–17 | 42.5 | W23–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Sam Houston at Jacksonville State | +5.5L11–21 | 57.5 | L11–21 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Sam Houston vs Liberty | +2.5W20–18 | 47.5 | W20–18 | U | Y |
| Thu 12/19 | Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern | +3.5W31–26 | 48.0 | W31–26 | O | Y |
Jacksonville State 2024 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina | -3.5L27–55 | 54.5 | L27–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Jacksonville State at Louisville | +27.5L14–49 | 56.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan | -2.5L34–37 | 53.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss | -6.0W44–7 | 59.5 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/4 | Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State | -17.5W63–24 | 49.5 | W63–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/9 | Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State | -21.0W54–13 | 58.5 | W54–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/23 | Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee | -20.5W42–20 | 64.5 | W42–20 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/30 | Jacksonville State at Liberty | +2.5W31–21 | 64.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech | -10.0W44–37 | 55.5 | W44–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Jacksonville State vs Florida International | -12.5W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston | -5.5W21–11 | 57.5 | W21–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky | -0.5L17–19 | 62.5 | L17–19 | U | N |
| Fri 12/6 | Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky | -4.5W52–12 | 58.5 | W52–12 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Jacksonville State vs Ohio | +6.5L27–30 | 57.5 | L27–30 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +0.70
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Sam Houston Edge
Sam Houston +0.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
88–36 (71%)
· Yr 11 at school
OC
Brad Cornelsen
Yr 2
#1
DC
Skyler Cassity
Yr 1
#1
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
18–6 (75%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Rod Smith
Yr 2
#1
DC
Luke Olson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

