Sam Houston at UCF Week 2 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at UCF Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 7 2024 · Week 2 · 🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium Orlando, FL · Turf · 44,206 cap
Sam Houston✈ 873 mi+1 hr TZ
14 45
Final
UCF
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
20
SHSU +21.5
UCF
32
P&R Line UCF -11.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 86 High
Vegas UCF -21.5 · O/U 53.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Sam Houston wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UCF -21.5
O/U 53.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UCF · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 UCF 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Sam Houston 2nd straight Road Game
Sam Houston 2024 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Sam Houston at Rice+9.5W34–1449.0W34–14UY
Sat 9/7Sam Houston at UCF+21.5L14–4553.5L14–45ON
Sat 9/14Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.5W31–1348.5W31–13UY
Sat 9/21Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.5W31–1144.5W31–11UY
Sat 9/28Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.0W40–3955.0W40–39OY
Thu 10/3Sam Houston at UTEP-10.0W41–2149.5W41–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/16Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.5L14–3155.0L14–31UN
Tue 10/22Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.0W10–747.0W10–7UN
Tue 10/29Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.5W9–345.5W9–3UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.0W23–1742.5W23–17UN
Sat 11/23Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.5L11–2157.5L11–21UN
Fri 11/29Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.5W20–1847.5W20–18UY
Thu 12/19Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.5W31–2648.0W31–26OY
UCF 2024 Schedule
UCF's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29UCF vs New Hampshire-38.5W57–358.5W57–3OY
Sat 9/7UCF vs Sam Houston-21.5W45–1453.5W45–14OY
Sat 9/14UCF at TCU+1.5W35–3461.5W35–34OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28UCF vs Colorado-12.5L21–4860.5L21–48ON
Sat 10/5UCF at Florida-1.0L13–2462.0L13–24UN
Sat 10/12UCF vs Cincinnati-2.0L13–1958.0L13–19UN
Sat 10/19UCF at Iowa State+13.0L35–3849.5L35–38OY
Sat 10/26UCF vs BYU-2.5L24–3753.5L24–37ON
Sat 11/2UCF vs Arizona-6.5W56–1255.0W56–12OY
Sat 11/9UCF at Arizona State+2.5L31–3555.5L31–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UCF at West Virginia-3.0L21–3160.0L21–31UN
Fri 11/29UCF vs Utah-9.5L14–2845.5L14–28UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
UCF PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UCF
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #115
+0.260
UCF #58
+0.321
UCF Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #114
+0.389
UCF #123
+0.153
Sam Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #58
0.167
UCF #64
0.163
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Sam Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #129
+7.341
UCF #86
+7.588
UCF Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #107
+0.792
UCF #28
+0.878
UCF Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #37
69.6
UCF #35
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UCF Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UCF Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.3
UCF
4.2
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
UCF
17.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.9
UCF
13.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Sam Houston Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #35
0.00
UCF #62
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #25
0.00
UCF #75
0.00
Sam Houston +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Sam Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
90.8
UCF #1
86.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #39
4.9
UCF #113
4.9
Sam Houston +4.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UCF
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UCF
88.6 — 5.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UCF won by 31
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
88–36 (71%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 2 #1
DC Skyler Cassity Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
24–16 (60%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Tim Harris Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Ted Roof Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself