Sam Houston at UTEP Week 6 College Football Matchup Sam Houston at UTEP Matchup - Week 6
Fri, Oct 4 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Sun Bowl Stadium El Paso, TX · Turf · 51,500 cap
Sam Houston✈ 651 mi-1 hr TZ
41 21
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Sam Houston
32
SHSU -10
UTEP
18
P&R Line Sam Houston -14
P&R Total O/U 49.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Sam Houston -10 · O/U 49.5
Matchup Prediction
Sam Houston has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Sam Houston entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Sam Houston wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Sam Houston wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Sam Houston -10
O/U 49.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Sam Houston · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 UTEP Coming off BYE
Sam Houston 2024 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Sam Houston at Rice+9.5W34–1449.0W34–14UY
Sat 9/7Sam Houston at UCF+21.5L14–4553.5L14–45ON
Sat 9/14Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.5W31–1348.5W31–13UY
Sat 9/21Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.5W31–1144.5W31–11UY
Sat 9/28Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.0W40–3955.0W40–39OY
Thu 10/3Sam Houston at UTEP-10.0W41–2149.5W41–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/16Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.5L14–3155.0L14–31UN
Tue 10/22Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.0W10–747.0W10–7UN
Tue 10/29Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.5W9–345.5W9–3UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.0W23–1742.5W23–17UN
Sat 11/23Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.5L11–2157.5L11–21UN
Fri 11/29Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.5W20–1847.5W20–18UY
Thu 12/19Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.5W31–2648.0W31–26OY
UTEP 2024 Schedule
UTEP's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31UTEP at Nebraska+27.5L7–4049.0L7–40UN
Sat 9/7UTEP vs Southern Utah-6.5L24–2754.5L24–27UN
Sat 9/14UTEP at Liberty+23.5L10–2857.5L10–28UY
Sat 9/21UTEP at Colorado State+8.5L17–2749.0L17–27UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/3UTEP vs Sam Houston+10.0L21–4149.5L21–41ON
Thu 10/10UTEP at Western Kentucky+19.0L17–4455.5L17–44ON
Wed 10/16UTEP vs Florida International+7.0W30–2147.0W30–21OY
Tue 10/22UTEP at Louisiana Tech+6.5L10–1449.0L10–14UY
Sat 11/2UTEP vs Middle Tennessee-2.0L13–2048.0L13–20UN
Sat 11/9UTEP vs Kennesaw State-4.5W43–3542.0W43–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23UTEP at Tennessee+41.5L0–5654.0L0–56ON
Sat 11/30UTEP at New Mexico State+3.5W42–3551.5W42–35OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Sam Houston PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Sam Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Sam Houston #115
+0.233
UTEP #121
+0.185
Sam Houston Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #114
+0.341
UTEP #108
+0.208
Sam Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #58
0.167
UTEP #34
0.182
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UTEP Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Sam Houston #129
+6.828
UTEP #132
+6.650
Sam Houston Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #107
+0.790
UTEP #124
+0.787
Sam Houston Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Sam Houston #37
69.6
UTEP #113
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Sam Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UTEP Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Sam Houston
-19.3
UTEP
-16.2
Offense Rating
Sam Houston
4.6
UTEP
4.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Sam Houston
23.9
UTEP
20.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Sam Houston Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Sam Houston #35
1.20
UTEP #130
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #25
0.80
UTEP #130
2.00
Sam Houston +0.87
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Sam Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Sam Houston #1
52.2
UTEP #1
19.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Sam Houston #39
38.0
UTEP #120
64.6
Sam Houston +32.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Sam Houston with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
88–36 (71%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 2 #1
DC Skyler Cassity Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UTEP
Scotty Walden #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jake Brown Yr 1 #1
DC J. J. Clark Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself