New Mexico State at Sam Houston Week 4 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Sam Houston Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Bowers Stadium Huntsville, TX · Turf · 14,000 cap
New Mexico State✈ 668 mi+1 hr TZ
11 31
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
15
Sam Houston
33
P&R Line Sam Houston -17.5
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Sam Houston -15.5 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors New Mexico State, while Game Control favors Sam Houston. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Sam Houston wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Sam Houston -15.5
O/U 44.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Sam Houston 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 New Mexico State 2nd straight Road Game
New Mexico State 2024 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.5W23–1652.5W23–16UN
Sat 9/7New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.5L24–3054.5L24–30UY
Sat 9/14New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.5L0–4848.5L0–48UN
Sat 9/21New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.5L11–3144.5L11–31UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.5L40–5054.0L40–50ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/9New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.0L13–5458.5L13–54ON
Tue 10/15New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.5W33–3049.0W33–30OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.0L13–3443.5L13–34ON
Sat 11/9New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.0L28–4153.5L28–41OY
Sat 11/16New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.5L3–3854.5L3–38UY
Sat 11/23New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.5W36–2154.0W36–21OY
Sat 11/30New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.5L35–4251.5L35–42ON
Sam Houston 2024 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Sam Houston at Rice+9.5W34–1449.0W34–14UY
Sat 9/7Sam Houston at UCF+21.5L14–4553.5L14–45ON
Sat 9/14Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.5W31–1348.5W31–13UY
Sat 9/21Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.5W31–1144.5W31–11UY
Sat 9/28Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.0W40–3955.0W40–39OY
Thu 10/3Sam Houston at UTEP-10.0W41–2149.5W41–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/16Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.5L14–3155.0L14–31UN
Tue 10/22Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.0W10–747.0W10–7UN
Tue 10/29Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.5W9–345.5W9–3UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.0W23–1742.5W23–17UN
Sat 11/23Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.5L11–2157.5L11–21UN
Fri 11/29Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.5W20–1847.5W20–18UY
Thu 12/19Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.5W31–2648.0W31–26OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Sam Houston PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State #119
+0.189
Sam Houston #115
+0.359
Sam Houston Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #128
+0.104
Sam Houston #114
+0.494
Sam Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #128
0.123
Sam Houston #58
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Sam Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #82
+7.638
Sam Houston #129
+6.678
New Mexico State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #106
+0.811
Sam Houston #107
+0.806
New Mexico State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #118
73.0
Sam Houston #37
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Sam Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.9
Sam Houston
-19.2
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Sam Houston
4.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.2
Sam Houston
23.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #117
0.50
Sam Houston #35
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #123
3.00
Sam Houston #25
1.00
New Mexico State +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Sam Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
27.9
Sam Houston #1
59.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #122
52.1
Sam Houston #39
33.9
Sam Houston +31.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Sam Houston
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Sam Houston
74.4 — 8.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Sam Houston won by 20
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
88–36 (71%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 2 #1
DC Skyler Cassity Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself