Liberty at Sam Houston Week 14 College Football Matchup Liberty at Sam Houston Matchup - Week 14
Fri, Nov 29 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Bowers Stadium Huntsville, TX · Turf · 14,000 cap
Liberty✈ 1,041 mi-1 hr TZ
Away
18 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Liberty
26
Sam Houston
21
P&R Line Liberty -5
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Liberty -2.5 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Liberty, while Game Control favors Sam Houston. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Liberty wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Sam Houston wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Liberty -2.5
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Liberty 2024 Schedule
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Liberty vs Campbell-41.5W41–2458.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/7Liberty at New Mexico State-22.5W30–2454.5W30–24UN
Sat 9/14Liberty vs UTEP-23.5W28–1057.5W28–10UN
Sat 9/21Liberty vs East Carolina-7.5W35–2455.0W35–24OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Liberty vs Florida International-15.5W31–2456.0W31–24UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/23Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.0L24–2748.0L24–27ON
Wed 10/30Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.5L21–3164.0L21–31UN
Sat 11/9Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.5W37–1754.5W37–17UY
Sat 11/16Liberty at Massachusetts-17.0W35–3453.0W35–34ON
Sat 11/23Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.0W38–2156.5W38–21OY
Fri 11/29Liberty at Sam Houston-2.5L18–2047.5L18–20UN
Sat 1/4Liberty vs Buffalo+4.5L7–2650.5L7–26UN
Sam Houston 2024 Schedule
Sam Houston's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Sam Houston at Rice+9.5W34–1449.0W34–14UY
Sat 9/7Sam Houston at UCF+21.5L14–4553.5L14–45ON
Sat 9/14Sam Houston vs Hawai'i-3.5W31–1348.5W31–13UY
Sat 9/21Sam Houston vs New Mexico State-15.5W31–1144.5W31–11UY
Sat 9/28Sam Houston vs Texas State+11.0W40–3955.0W40–39OY
Thu 10/3Sam Houston at UTEP-10.0W41–2149.5W41–21OY
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/16Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky-1.5L14–3155.0L14–31UN
Tue 10/22Sam Houston vs Florida International-5.0W10–747.0W10–7UN
Tue 10/29Sam Houston vs Louisiana Tech-10.5W9–345.5W9–3UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Sam Houston at Kennesaw State-21.0W23–1742.5W23–17UN
Sat 11/23Sam Houston at Jacksonville State+5.5L11–2157.5L11–21UN
Fri 11/29Sam Houston vs Liberty+2.5W20–1847.5W20–18UY
Thu 12/19Sam Houston vs Georgia Southern+3.5W31–2648.0W31–26OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Liberty #24
+0.368
Sam Houston #115
+0.196
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #56
+0.331
Sam Houston #114
+0.336
Sam Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Liberty #71
0.158
Sam Houston #58
0.167
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Sam Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Liberty #43
+8.047
Sam Houston #129
+6.658
Liberty Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Liberty #7
+0.917
Sam Houston #107
+0.788
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Liberty #81
71.5
Sam Houston #37
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Sam Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Liberty
-2.9
Sam Houston
-19.2
Offense Rating
Liberty
14.1
Sam Houston
4.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Liberty
17.0
Sam Houston
23.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Liberty #23
1.11
Sam Houston #35
0.82
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #41
0.89
Sam Houston #25
0.46
Liberty +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Sam Houston Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Liberty #1
36.6
Sam Houston #1
47.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Liberty #102
41.0
Sam Houston #39
35.7
Sam Houston +10.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Sam Houston
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Sam Houston
76.6 — 10.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Sam Houston won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
13–1 (93%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 2 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Sam Houston
K. C. Keeler #1
88–36 (71%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Brad Cornelsen Yr 2 #1
DC Skyler Cassity Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself