Louisiana Tech at Arkansas Week 13 College Football Matchup Louisiana Tech at Arkansas Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 23 2024 · Week 13 · 🏟 Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium Frank Broyles Field Fayetteville, AR · Turf · 72,000 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 259 miSame TZ
14 35
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisiana Tech
10
Arkansas
38
P&R Line Arkansas -28
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Arkansas -23.5 · O/U 48.5
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Arkansas entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Arkansas wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Arkansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arkansas -23.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arkansas · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Arkansas 3rd straight Home Game 🚌 Louisiana Tech 2nd straight Road Game
Louisiana Tech 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls-17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Louisiana Tech at NC State+20.5L20–3047.5L20–30OY
Sat 9/21Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa-3.0L20–2356.5L20–23UN
Sat 9/28Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-2.0L10–1749.0L10–17UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee-5.0W48–2148.0W48–21OY
Tue 10/15Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State-12.5L30–3349.0L30–33ON
Tue 10/22Louisiana Tech vs UTEP-6.5W14–1049.0W14–10UN
Tue 10/29Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston+10.5L3–945.5L3–9UY
Sat 11/9Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State+10.0L37–4455.5L37–44OY
Sat 11/16Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky+11.5W12–752.5W12–7UY
Sat 11/23Louisiana Tech at Arkansas+23.5L14–3548.5L14–35OY
Sat 11/30Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State-13.5W33–041.5W33–0UY
Sat 12/28Louisiana Tech vs Army+15.0L6–2744.5L6–27UN
Arkansas 2024 Schedule
Arkansas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff-50.5W70–060.5W70–0OY
Sat 9/7Arkansas at Oklahoma State+10.5L31–3960.5L31–39OY
Sat 9/14Arkansas vs UAB-23.5W37–2760.5W37–27ON
Sat 9/21Arkansas at Auburn+2.5W24–1453.5W24–14UY
Sat 9/28Arkansas vs Texas A&M+6.5L17–2150.5L17–21UY
Sat 10/5Arkansas vs Tennessee+14.0W19–1457.5W19–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Arkansas vs LSU+3.0L10–3457.0L10–34UN
Sat 10/26Arkansas at Mississippi State-7.5W58–2555.0W58–25OY
Sat 11/2Arkansas vs Ole Miss+8.0L31–6354.0L31–63ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Arkansas vs Texas+13.0L10–2057.5L10–20UY
Sat 11/23Arkansas vs Louisiana Tech-23.5W35–1448.5W35–14ON
Sat 11/30Arkansas at Missouri+3.5L21–2851.5L21–28UN
Fri 12/27Arkansas vs Texas Tech+3.5W39–2652.5W39–26OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Arkansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisiana Tech #130
+0.153
Arkansas #27
+0.350
Arkansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #115
+0.411
Arkansas #46
+0.445
Arkansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #76
0.155
Arkansas #101
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #124
+6.404
Arkansas #64
+7.672
Arkansas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #119
+0.790
Arkansas #13
+0.855
Arkansas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #8
66.8
Arkansas #108
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Arkansas Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisiana Tech
-5.0
Arkansas
-2.3
Offense Rating
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Arkansas
14.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Arkansas
17.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arkansas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisiana Tech #81
1.00
Arkansas #69
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #18
0.22
Arkansas #85
1.44
Arkansas +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arkansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisiana Tech #1
36.9
Arkansas #1
44.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #76
35.7
Arkansas #57
39.8
Arkansas +7.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Arkansas
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Arkansas
64.8 — 12.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arkansas won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arkansas. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
6–18 (25%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Scott Parr Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
23–25 (48%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Bobby Petrino Yr 1 #1
DC Travis Williams Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself