Tulsa at Louisiana Tech Week 4 College Football Matchup Tulsa at Louisiana Tech Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium Ruston, LA · Turf · 28,019 cap
Tulsa✈ 312 miSame TZ
Away
23 20
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Tulsa
22
LT -3
Louisiana Tech
33
P&R Line Louisiana Tech -11
P&R Total O/U 55.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Louisiana Tech -3 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Louisiana Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Louisiana Tech wins
Strong
Game Control
58.6%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -3
O/U 56.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Tulsa 2024 Schedule
Tulsa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Tulsa vs Northwestern State-37.5W62–2855.5W62–28ON
Sat 9/7Tulsa at Arkansas State+9.5L24–2865.5L24–28UY
Sat 9/14Tulsa vs Oklahoma State+17.5L10–4562.5L10–45UN
Sat 9/21Tulsa at Louisiana Tech+3.0W23–2056.5W23–20UY
Sat 9/28Tulsa at North Texas+7.0L20–5265.5L20–52ON
Sat 10/5Tulsa vs Army+13.5L7–4950.5L7–49ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Tulsa at Temple+3.5L10–2051.5L10–20UN
Sat 10/26Tulsa vs UTSA+9.5W46–4552.5W46–45OY
Sat 11/2Tulsa at UAB+2.5L21–5957.5L21–59ON
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/14Tulsa vs East Carolina+16.0L31–3863.5L31–38OY
Sat 11/23Tulsa at South Florida+17.5L30–6360.0L30–63ON
Sat 11/30Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic+2.5L16–6357.5L16–63ON
Louisiana Tech 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls-17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Louisiana Tech at NC State+20.5L20–3047.5L20–30OY
Sat 9/21Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa-3.0L20–2356.5L20–23UN
Sat 9/28Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-2.0L10–1749.0L10–17UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee-5.0W48–2148.0W48–21OY
Tue 10/15Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State-12.5L30–3349.0L30–33ON
Tue 10/22Louisiana Tech vs UTEP-6.5W14–1049.0W14–10UN
Tue 10/29Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston+10.5L3–945.5L3–9UY
Sat 11/9Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State+10.0L37–4455.5L37–44OY
Sat 11/16Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky+11.5W12–752.5W12–7UY
Sat 11/23Louisiana Tech at Arkansas+23.5L14–3548.5L14–35OY
Sat 11/30Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State-13.5W33–041.5W33–0UY
Sat 12/28Louisiana Tech vs Army+15.0L6–2744.5L6–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Louisiana Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Tulsa #124
+0.161
Louisiana Tech #130
+0.336
Louisiana Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Tulsa #104
+0.305
Louisiana Tech #115
+0.639
Louisiana Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Tulsa #82
0.151
Louisiana Tech #76
0.155
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Tulsa #100
+7.256
Louisiana Tech #124
+7.789
Louisiana Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Tulsa #131
+0.713
Louisiana Tech #119
+0.796
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Tulsa #73
71.1
Louisiana Tech #8
66.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Tulsa Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Tulsa
0.8
Louisiana Tech
-4.9
Offense Rating
Tulsa
16.9
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Tulsa
16.1
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Tulsa #80
0.50
Louisiana Tech #81
3.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Tulsa #128
1.50
Louisiana Tech #18
1.00
Louisiana Tech +2.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Tulsa #1
40.8
Louisiana Tech #1
47.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Tulsa #134
43.4
Louisiana Tech #76
26.7
Louisiana Tech +6.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Louisiana Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Tulsa
Kevin Wilson #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Steve Spurrier Jr. Yr 2 #1
DC Chris Polizzi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
6–18 (25%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Scott Parr Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself