Sat, Sep 28 2024
·
Week 5
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Pitbull Stadium
Miami, FL
·
Turf
·
23,500 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 875 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Louisiana Tech,
while Game Control favors Florida International.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Florida International wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -2
O/U 49.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana Tech 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Louisiana Tech at NC State | +20.5L20–30 | 47.5 | L20–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa | -3.0L20–23 | 56.5 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Louisiana Tech vs Florida International | -2.0L10–17 | 49.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/10 | Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee | -5.0W48–21 | 48.0 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| Tue 10/15 | Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State | -12.5L30–33 | 49.0 | L30–33 | O | N |
| Tue 10/22 | Louisiana Tech vs UTEP | -6.5W14–10 | 49.0 | W14–10 | U | N |
| Tue 10/29 | Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston | +10.5L3–9 | 45.5 | L3–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State | +10.0L37–44 | 55.5 | L37–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky | +11.5W12–7 | 52.5 | W12–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Louisiana Tech at Arkansas | +23.5L14–35 | 48.5 | L14–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State | -13.5W33–0 | 41.5 | W33–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/28 | Louisiana Tech vs Army | +15.0L6–27 | 44.5 | L6–27 | U | N |
Florida International 2024 Schedule
Florida International's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Florida International at Indiana | +20.5L7–31 | 50.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Florida International vs Central Michigan | +3.5W52–16 | 51.5 | W52–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Florida International at Florida Atlantic | +3.5L20–38 | 44.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida International vs Monmouth | -12.5L42–45 | 59.5 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida International vs Louisiana Tech | +2.0W17–10 | 49.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/8 | Florida International at Liberty | +15.5L24–31 | 56.0 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/16 | Florida International at UTEP | -7.0L21–30 | 47.0 | L21–30 | O | N |
| Tue 10/22 | Florida International vs Sam Houston | +5.0L7–10 | 47.0 | L7–10 | U | Y |
| Tue 10/29 | Florida International vs New Mexico State | -7.0W34–13 | 43.5 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Florida International at Jacksonville State | +12.5L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Florida International at Kennesaw State | -9.0L26–27 | 42.5 | L26–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida International vs Middle Tennessee | -9.5W35–24 | 50.5 | W35–24 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisiana Tech Edge
Louisiana Tech +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +1.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
6–18 (25%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Scott Parr
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeremiah Johnson
Yr 1
#1
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
David Yost
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jovan Dewitt
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

