Louisiana Tech at Florida International Week 5 College Football Matchup Louisiana Tech at Florida International Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Sep 28 2024 · Week 5 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Pitbull Stadium Miami, FL · Turf · 23,500 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 875 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
10 17
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisiana Tech
22
Florida International
26
P&R Line Florida International -3.5
P&R Total O/U 48
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Louisiana Tech -2 · O/U 49.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Louisiana Tech, while Game Control favors Florida International. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Florida International wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -2
O/U 49.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Florida International 2nd straight Home Game
Louisiana Tech 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls-17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Louisiana Tech at NC State+20.5L20–3047.5L20–30OY
Sat 9/21Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa-3.0L20–2356.5L20–23UN
Sat 9/28Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-2.0L10–1749.0L10–17UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee-5.0W48–2148.0W48–21OY
Tue 10/15Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State-12.5L30–3349.0L30–33ON
Tue 10/22Louisiana Tech vs UTEP-6.5W14–1049.0W14–10UN
Tue 10/29Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston+10.5L3–945.5L3–9UY
Sat 11/9Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State+10.0L37–4455.5L37–44OY
Sat 11/16Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky+11.5W12–752.5W12–7UY
Sat 11/23Louisiana Tech at Arkansas+23.5L14–3548.5L14–35OY
Sat 11/30Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State-13.5W33–041.5W33–0UY
Sat 12/28Louisiana Tech vs Army+15.0L6–2744.5L6–27UN
Florida International 2024 Schedule
Florida International's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Florida International at Indiana+20.5L7–3150.5L7–31UN
Sat 9/7Florida International vs Central Michigan+3.5W52–1651.5W52–16OY
Sat 9/14Florida International at Florida Atlantic+3.5L20–3844.5L20–38ON
Sat 9/21Florida International vs Monmouth-12.5L42–4559.5L42–45ON
Sat 9/28Florida International vs Louisiana Tech+2.0W17–1049.0W17–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Florida International at Liberty+15.5L24–3156.0L24–31UY
Wed 10/16Florida International at UTEP-7.0L21–3047.0L21–30ON
Tue 10/22Florida International vs Sam Houston+5.0L7–1047.0L7–10UY
Tue 10/29Florida International vs New Mexico State-7.0W34–1343.5W34–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Florida International at Jacksonville State+12.5L31–3458.5L31–34OY
Sat 11/23Florida International at Kennesaw State-9.0L26–2742.5L26–27ON
Sat 11/30Florida International vs Middle Tennessee-9.5W35–2450.5W35–24OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Florida International PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisiana Tech #130
+0.142
Florida International #101
+0.233
Florida International Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #115
+0.182
Florida International #48
+0.440
Florida International Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #76
0.155
Florida International #129
0.120
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #124
+6.578
Florida International #21
+8.160
Florida International Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #119
+0.787
Florida International #111
+0.764
Louisiana Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #8
66.8
Florida International #61
70.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida International Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisiana Tech
-5.0
Florida International
-4.1
Offense Rating
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Florida International
11.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Florida International
15.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Louisiana Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisiana Tech #81
1.50
Florida International #87
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #18
0.50
Florida International #51
1.67
Louisiana Tech +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida International Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisiana Tech #1
37.5
Florida International #1
38.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #76
34.2
Florida International #65
48.3
Florida International +1.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
6–18 (25%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Scott Parr Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC David Yost Yr 3 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself