Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech Week 11 College Football Matchup Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech Matchup - Week 11
Sat, Nov 9 2024 · Week 11 · 🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium Ruston, LA · Turf · 28,019 cap
Jacksonville State✈ 408 miSame TZ
44 37
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Jacksonville State
32
Louisiana Tech
23
P&R Line Jacksonville State -9
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Jacksonville State -10.0 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -10.0
O/U 55.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Jacksonville State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Jacksonville State 2nd straight Road Game
Jacksonville State 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls-17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Louisiana Tech at NC State+20.5L20–3047.5L20–30OY
Sat 9/21Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa-3.0L20–2356.5L20–23UN
Sat 9/28Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-2.0L10–1749.0L10–17UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee-5.0W48–2148.0W48–21OY
Tue 10/15Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State-12.5L30–3349.0L30–33ON
Tue 10/22Louisiana Tech vs UTEP-6.5W14–1049.0W14–10UN
Tue 10/29Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston+10.5L3–945.5L3–9UY
Sat 11/9Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State+10.0L37–4455.5L37–44OY
Sat 11/16Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky+11.5W12–752.5W12–7UY
Sat 11/23Louisiana Tech at Arkansas+23.5L14–3548.5L14–35OY
Sat 11/30Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State-13.5W33–041.5W33–0UY
Sat 12/28Louisiana Tech vs Army+15.0L6–2744.5L6–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Jacksonville State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Jacksonville State #22
+0.372
Louisiana Tech #130
+0.164
Jacksonville State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #35
+0.480
Louisiana Tech #115
+0.341
Jacksonville State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #66
0.162
Louisiana Tech #76
0.155
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Jacksonville State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #3
+8.568
Louisiana Tech #124
+6.904
Jacksonville State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #35
+0.824
Louisiana Tech #119
+0.806
Jacksonville State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #81
71.5
Louisiana Tech #8
66.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Jacksonville State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Jacksonville State
-2.7
Louisiana Tech
-5.0
Offense Rating
Jacksonville State
14.4
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Jacksonville State
17.1
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Jacksonville State #76
1.88
Louisiana Tech #81
1.14
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #33
0.50
Louisiana Tech #18
0.14
Jacksonville State +0.73
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Jacksonville State #1
53.0
Louisiana Tech #1
36.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #50
32.8
Louisiana Tech #76
36.1
Jacksonville State +16.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
18–6 (75%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 2 #1
DC Luke Olson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
6–18 (25%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Scott Parr Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself