Louisiana Tech at Army Week 1 College Football Matchup Louisiana Tech at Army Matchup - Week 1
Sun, Dec 29 2024 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Independence Stadium Shreveport, FL · Turf · 49,565 cap
Army✈ 1,252 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
6 27
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Louisiana Tech
11
ARMY -15
Army
33
P&R Line Army -22
P&R Total O/U 44.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Army -15 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Army has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Army entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Army wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Army wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Army -15
O/U 44.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Army · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Army 4th straight Home Game
Louisiana Tech 2024 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls-17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14Louisiana Tech at NC State+20.5L20–3047.5L20–30OY
Sat 9/21Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa-3.0L20–2356.5L20–23UN
Sat 9/28Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-2.0L10–1749.0L10–17UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/10Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee-5.0W48–2148.0W48–21OY
Tue 10/15Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State-12.5L30–3349.0L30–33ON
Tue 10/22Louisiana Tech vs UTEP-6.5W14–1049.0W14–10UN
Tue 10/29Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston+10.5L3–945.5L3–9UY
Sat 11/9Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State+10.0L37–4455.5L37–44OY
Sat 11/16Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky+11.5W12–752.5W12–7UY
Sat 11/23Louisiana Tech at Arkansas+23.5L14–3548.5L14–35OY
Sat 11/30Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State-13.5W33–041.5W33–0UY
Sat 12/28Louisiana Tech vs Army+15.0L6–2744.5L6–27UN
Army 2024 Schedule
Army's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Army vs Lehigh-28
Sat 9/7Army at Florida Atlantic+1.5W24–742.5W24–7UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Army vs Rice-7.0W37–1444.0W37–14OY
Thu 9/26Army at Temple-11.0W42–1446.5W42–14OY
Sat 10/5Army at Tulsa-13.5W49–750.5W49–7OY
Sat 10/12Army vs UAB-27.0W44–1055.5W44–10UY
Sat 10/19Army vs East Carolina-17.5W45–2854.0W45–28ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/2Army vs Air Force-18.0W20–338.5W20–3UN
Sat 11/9Army at North Texas-6.5W14–368.0W14–3UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Army vs Notre Dame+14.5L14–4944.5L14–49ON
Sat 11/30Army vs UTSA-6.5W29–2453.5W29–24UN
Fri 12/6Army vs Tulane+4.5W35–1446.5W35–14OY
Sat 12/14Army vs Navy-6.039.5
Sat 12/28Army vs Louisiana Tech-15.0W27–644.5W27–6UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Army PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Army
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Louisiana Tech #130
+0.143
Army #10
+0.417
Army Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #115
+0.283
Army #8
+0.579
Army Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #76
0.155
Army #100
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisiana Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Louisiana Tech #124
+5.659
Army #19
+8.192
Army Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #119
+0.809
Army #6
+0.879
Army Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Louisiana Tech #8
66.8
Army #63
70.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisiana Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Army Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Louisiana Tech
-4.9
Army
-1.0
Offense Rating
Louisiana Tech
13.5
Army
14.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Louisiana Tech
18.4
Army
15.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Army Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Louisiana Tech #81
0.91
Army #50
1.42
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #18
0.27
Army #70
0.50
Army +0.51
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Army Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Louisiana Tech #1
39.4
Army #1
66.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Louisiana Tech #76
35.6
Army #6
21.2
Army +27.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Army
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Army
87.9 — 5.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Army won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Army with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
6–18 (25%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Scott Parr Yr 1 #1
DC Jeremiah Johnson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Army
Jeff Monken #1
70–55 (56%) · Yr 11 at school
OC Cody Worley Yr 1 #1
DC Nate Woody Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself