Jacksonville State at Liberty Week 10 College Football Matchup Jacksonville State at Liberty Matchup - Week 10
Wed, Oct 30 2024 · Week 10 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
Jacksonville State✈ 443 mi+1 hr TZ
31 21
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Jacksonville State
28
LIB -2.5
Liberty
34
P&R Line Liberty -6.5
P&R Total O/U 61.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Liberty -2.5 · O/U 64.0
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Jacksonville State wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Liberty -2.5
O/U 64.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Jacksonville State 2024 Schedule
Liberty 2024 Schedule
Liberty's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Liberty vs Campbell-41.5W41–2458.5W41–24ON
Sat 9/7Liberty at New Mexico State-22.5W30–2454.5W30–24UN
Sat 9/14Liberty vs UTEP-23.5W28–1057.5W28–10UN
Sat 9/21Liberty vs East Carolina-7.5W35–2455.0W35–24OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Liberty vs Florida International-15.5W31–2456.0W31–24UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/23Liberty at Kennesaw State-27.0L24–2748.0L24–27ON
Wed 10/30Liberty vs Jacksonville State-2.5L21–3164.0L21–31UN
Sat 11/9Liberty at Middle Tennessee-12.5W37–1754.5W37–17UY
Sat 11/16Liberty at Massachusetts-17.0W35–3453.0W35–34ON
Sat 11/23Liberty vs Western Kentucky-1.0W38–2156.5W38–21OY
Fri 11/29Liberty at Sam Houston-2.5L18–2047.5L18–20UN
Sat 1/4Liberty vs Buffalo+4.5L7–2650.5L7–26UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Jacksonville State #22
+0.369
Liberty #24
+0.399
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #35
+0.540
Liberty #56
+0.485
Jacksonville State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #66
0.162
Liberty #71
0.158
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Jacksonville State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #3
+8.532
Liberty #43
+8.021
Jacksonville State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #35
+0.846
Liberty #7
+0.931
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #81
71.5
Liberty #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Even
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Jacksonville State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Jacksonville State
-2.7
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
Jacksonville State
14.4
Liberty
15.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Jacksonville State
17.0
Liberty
18.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Jacksonville State #76
2.00
Liberty #23
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #33
0.57
Liberty #41
1.20
Jacksonville State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Jacksonville State #1
51.4
Liberty #1
36.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #50
36.0
Liberty #102
41.5
Jacksonville State +14.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
18–6 (75%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 2 #1
DC Luke Olson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Jamey Chadwell #1
13–1 (93%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Newland Isaac Yr 2 #1
DC Jack Curtis Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself