Wed, Oct 9 2024
·
Week 7
·
🏟 JSU Stadium
Jacksonville, AL
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,217 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Jacksonville State wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Jacksonville State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -21
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Jacksonville State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico State 2024 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State | -9.5W23–16 | 52.5 | W23–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | New Mexico State vs Liberty | +22.5L24–30 | 54.5 | L24–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | New Mexico State at Fresno State | +19.5L0–48 | 48.5 | L0–48 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | New Mexico State at Sam Houston | +15.5L11–31 | 44.5 | L11–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | New Mexico State vs New Mexico | +9.5L40–50 | 54.0 | L40–50 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/9 | New Mexico State at Jacksonville State | +21.0L13–54 | 58.5 | L13–54 | O | N |
| Tue 10/15 | New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech | +12.5W33–30 | 49.0 | W33–30 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/29 | New Mexico State vs Florida International | +7.0L13–34 | 43.5 | L13–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky | +18.0L28–41 | 53.5 | L28–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | New Mexico State at Texas A&M | +38.5L3–38 | 54.5 | L3–38 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee | +3.5W36–21 | 54.0 | W36–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | New Mexico State vs UTEP | -3.5L35–42 | 51.5 | L35–42 | O | N |
Jacksonville State 2024 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina | -3.5L27–55 | 54.5 | L27–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Jacksonville State at Louisville | +27.5L14–49 | 56.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan | -2.5L34–37 | 53.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss | -6.0W44–7 | 59.5 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/4 | Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State | -17.5W63–24 | 49.5 | W63–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/9 | Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State | -21.0W54–13 | 58.5 | W54–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/23 | Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee | -20.5W42–20 | 64.5 | W42–20 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/30 | Jacksonville State at Liberty | +2.5W31–21 | 64.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech | -10.0W44–37 | 55.5 | W44–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Jacksonville State vs Florida International | -12.5W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston | -5.5W21–11 | 57.5 | W21–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky | -0.5L17–19 | 62.5 | L17–19 | U | N |
| Fri 12/6 | Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky | -4.5W52–12 | 58.5 | W52–12 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Jacksonville State vs Ohio | +6.5L27–30 | 57.5 | L27–30 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +1.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +23.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Jacksonville State
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Jacksonville State
75.9 — 8.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Jacksonville State won by 41
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tyler Wright
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Morris
Yr 1
#1
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
18–6 (75%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Rod Smith
Yr 2
#1
DC
Luke Olson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓