Fri, Dec 20 2024
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Camping World Stadium
Orlando, FL
·
Turf
·
65,000 cap
Ohio✈ 746 miSame TZ
Jacksonville State✈ 446 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Jacksonville State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ohio -6.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio 2024 Schedule
Ohio's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ohio at Syracuse | +17.5L22–38 | 47.5 | L22–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Ohio vs South Alabama | +1.5W27–20 | 55.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Ohio vs Morgan State | -24.5W21–6 | 45.5 | W21–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Ohio at Kentucky | +19.0L6–41 | 42.0 | L6–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Ohio vs Akron | -8.5W30–10 | 46.0 | W30–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Ohio at Central Michigan | -3.0W27–25 | 50.5 | W27–25 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Ohio at Miami (OH) | +3.5L20–30 | 43.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Ohio vs Buffalo | -4.0W47–16 | 46.5 | W47–16 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/6 | Ohio at Kent State | -20.5W41–0 | 53.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/13 | Ohio vs Eastern Michigan | -10.5W35–10 | 51.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/20 | Ohio at Toledo | +1.5W24–7 | 47.0 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/29 | Ohio vs Ball State | -17.5W42–21 | 51.5 | W42–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Ohio vs Miami (OH) | +2.5W38–3 | 43.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Ohio vs Jacksonville State | -6.5W30–27 | 57.5 | W30–27 | U | N |
Jacksonville State 2024 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina | -3.5L27–55 | 54.5 | L27–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Jacksonville State at Louisville | +27.5L14–49 | 56.5 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan | -2.5L34–37 | 53.5 | L34–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss | -6.0W44–7 | 59.5 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/4 | Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State | -17.5W63–24 | 49.5 | W63–24 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/9 | Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State | -21.0W54–13 | 58.5 | W54–13 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/23 | Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee | -20.5W42–20 | 64.5 | W42–20 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/30 | Jacksonville State at Liberty | +2.5W31–21 | 64.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech | -10.0W44–37 | 55.5 | W44–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Jacksonville State vs Florida International | -12.5W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston | -5.5W21–11 | 57.5 | W21–11 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky | -0.5L17–19 | 62.5 | L17–19 | U | N |
| Fri 12/6 | Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky | -4.5W52–12 | 58.5 | W52–12 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/20 | Jacksonville State vs Ohio | +6.5L27–30 | 57.5 | L27–30 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +0.12
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +0.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Ohio
1 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Ohio
8.0 — 83.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Ohio won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio
Tim Albin #1
23–16 (59%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Brian Smith
Yr 1
#1
DC
John Hauser
Yr 1
#1
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
18–6 (75%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Rod Smith
Yr 2
#1
DC
Luke Olson
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓