Florida International at Jacksonville State Week 12 College Football Matchup Florida International at Jacksonville State Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 16 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 JSU Stadium Jacksonville, AL · Turf · 24,000 cap
Florida International✈ 644 mi-1 hr TZ
31 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida International
24
FIU +12.5
Jacksonville State
34
P&R Line Jacksonville State -10.5
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Jacksonville State -12.5 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Jacksonville State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -12.5
O/U 58.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Jacksonville State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Florida International Coming off BYE
Florida International 2024 Schedule
Florida International's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Florida International at Indiana+20.5L7–3150.5L7–31UN
Sat 9/7Florida International vs Central Michigan+3.5W52–1651.5W52–16OY
Sat 9/14Florida International at Florida Atlantic+3.5L20–3844.5L20–38ON
Sat 9/21Florida International vs Monmouth-12.5L42–4559.5L42–45ON
Sat 9/28Florida International vs Louisiana Tech+2.0W17–1049.0W17–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Florida International at Liberty+15.5L24–3156.0L24–31UY
Wed 10/16Florida International at UTEP-7.0L21–3047.0L21–30ON
Tue 10/22Florida International vs Sam Houston+5.0L7–1047.0L7–10UY
Tue 10/29Florida International vs New Mexico State-7.0W34–1343.5W34–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Florida International at Jacksonville State+12.5L31–3458.5L31–34OY
Sat 11/23Florida International at Kennesaw State-9.0L26–2742.5L26–27ON
Sat 11/30Florida International vs Middle Tennessee-9.5W35–2450.5W35–24OY
Jacksonville State 2024 Schedule
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Jacksonville State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida International #101
+0.277
Jacksonville State #22
+0.393
Jacksonville State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #48
+0.505
Jacksonville State #35
+0.386
Florida International Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida International #129
0.120
Jacksonville State #66
0.162
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Jacksonville State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida International #21
+8.252
Jacksonville State #3
+8.335
Jacksonville State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida International #111
+0.823
Jacksonville State #35
+0.864
Jacksonville State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida International #61
70.5
Jacksonville State #81
71.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida International Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Jacksonville State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida International
-4.1
Jacksonville State
-2.7
Offense Rating
Florida International
11.7
Jacksonville State
14.4
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida International
15.7
Jacksonville State
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida International #87
1.00
Jacksonville State #76
1.78
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #51
0.75
Jacksonville State #33
0.44
Jacksonville State +0.78
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida International #1
37.5
Jacksonville State #1
52.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida International #65
41.5
Jacksonville State #50
32.6
Jacksonville State +15.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC David Yost Yr 3 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
18–6 (75%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 2 #1
DC Luke Olson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself