New Mexico State at Florida International Week 10 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Florida International Matchup - Week 10
Tue, Oct 29 2024 · Week 10 · Neutral Site · 🏟 Pitbull Stadium Miami, FL · Turf · 23,500 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,650 mi+2 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
13 34
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
16
FIU -7
Florida International
26
P&R Line Florida International -10
P&R Total O/U 42
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Florida International -7 · O/U 43.5
Matchup Prediction
Florida International has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Florida International entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Florida International wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida International -7
O/U 43.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Florida International 2nd straight Home Game 🛋 New Mexico State Coming off BYE
New Mexico State 2024 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.5W23–1652.5W23–16UN
Sat 9/7New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.5L24–3054.5L24–30UY
Sat 9/14New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.5L0–4848.5L0–48UN
Sat 9/21New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.5L11–3144.5L11–31UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.5L40–5054.0L40–50ON
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/9New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.0L13–5458.5L13–54ON
Tue 10/15New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.5W33–3049.0W33–30OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/29New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.0L13–3443.5L13–34ON
Sat 11/9New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.0L28–4153.5L28–41OY
Sat 11/16New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.5L3–3854.5L3–38UY
Sat 11/23New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.5W36–2154.0W36–21OY
Sat 11/30New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.5L35–4251.5L35–42ON
Florida International 2024 Schedule
Florida International's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Florida International at Indiana+20.5L7–3150.5L7–31UN
Sat 9/7Florida International vs Central Michigan+3.5W52–1651.5W52–16OY
Sat 9/14Florida International at Florida Atlantic+3.5L20–3844.5L20–38ON
Sat 9/21Florida International vs Monmouth-12.5L42–4559.5L42–45ON
Sat 9/28Florida International vs Louisiana Tech+2.0W17–1049.0W17–10UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/8Florida International at Liberty+15.5L24–3156.0L24–31UY
Wed 10/16Florida International at UTEP-7.0L21–3047.0L21–30ON
Tue 10/22Florida International vs Sam Houston+5.0L7–1047.0L7–10UY
Tue 10/29Florida International vs New Mexico State-7.0W34–1343.5W34–13OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Florida International at Jacksonville State+12.5L31–3458.5L31–34OY
Sat 11/23Florida International at Kennesaw State-9.0L26–2742.5L26–27ON
Sat 11/30Florida International vs Middle Tennessee-9.5W35–2450.5W35–24OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Florida International PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State #119
+0.198
Florida International #101
+0.394
Florida International Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #128
+0.099
Florida International #48
+0.658
Florida International Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #128
0.123
Florida International #129
0.120
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
New Mexico State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State #82
+7.286
Florida International #21
+8.144
Florida International Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #106
+0.806
Florida International #111
+0.804
New Mexico State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State #118
73.0
Florida International #61
70.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Florida International Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Florida International Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.5
Florida International
-4.0
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.4
Florida International
11.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
20.8
Florida International
15.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida International Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #117
0.17
Florida International #87
0.71
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #123
2.33
Florida International #51
0.86
Florida International +0.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Florida International Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
19.6
Florida International #1
37.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #122
58.6
Florida International #65
42.4
Florida International +18.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida International
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Florida International
37.2 — 34.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Florida International won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Florida International with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tyler Wright Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Morris Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
8–16 (33%) · Yr 3 at school
OC David Yost Yr 3 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself