Sat, Sep 7 2024
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Boone Pickens Stadium
Stillwater, OK
·
Turf
·
60,218 cap
Arkansas✈ 161 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Arkansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Oklahoma State -10.5
O/U 60.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arkansas
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas 2024 Schedule
Arkansas's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Arkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -50.5W70–0 | 60.5 | W70–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Arkansas at Oklahoma State | +10.5L31–39 | 60.5 | L31–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Arkansas vs UAB | -23.5W37–27 | 60.5 | W37–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Arkansas at Auburn | +2.5W24–14 | 53.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | +6.5L17–21 | 50.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Arkansas vs Tennessee | +14.0W19–14 | 57.5 | W19–14 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Arkansas vs LSU | +3.0L10–34 | 57.0 | L10–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Arkansas at Mississippi State | -7.5W58–25 | 55.0 | W58–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Arkansas vs Ole Miss | +8.0L31–63 | 54.0 | L31–63 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Arkansas vs Texas | +13.0L10–20 | 57.5 | L10–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Arkansas vs Louisiana Tech | -23.5W35–14 | 48.5 | W35–14 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Arkansas at Missouri | +3.5L21–28 | 51.5 | L21–28 | U | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Arkansas vs Texas Tech | +3.5W39–26 | 52.5 | W39–26 | O | Y |
Oklahoma State 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State | -9.5W44–20 | 54.0 | W44–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Oklahoma State vs Arkansas | -10.5W39–31 | 60.5 | W39–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Oklahoma State at Tulsa | -17.5W45–10 | 62.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Oklahoma State vs Utah | +1.0L19–22 | 53.5 | L19–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Oklahoma State at Kansas State | +6.0L20–42 | 58.0 | L20–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Oklahoma State vs West Virginia | -2.5L14–38 | 65.0 | L14–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Oklahoma State at BYU | +8.5L35–38 | 53.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Oklahoma State at Baylor | +7.0L28–38 | 64.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Oklahoma State vs Arizona State | +5.0L21–42 | 57.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Oklahoma State at TCU | +10.5L13–38 | 68.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech | +5.0L48–56 | 63.5 | L48–56 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Oklahoma State at Colorado | +14.5L0–52 | 66.5 | L0–52 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas Edge
Arkansas +8.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oklahoma State
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas
15.8 — 60.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oklahoma State won by 8
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas
Sam Pittman #1
23–25 (48%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Bobby Petrino
Yr 1
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 2
#1
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
166–79 (68%)
· Yr 20 at school
OC
Kasey Dunn
Yr 3
#1
DC
Bryan Nardo
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓