Oklahoma State at Colorado Week 14 College Football Matchup Oklahoma State at Colorado Matchup - Week 14
Fri, Nov 29 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Folsom Field Boulder, CO · Turf · 50,183 cap
Oklahoma State✈ 520 mi-1 hr TZ
0 52
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Oklahoma State
24
Colorado
39
P&R Line Colorado -14.5
P&R Total O/U 63
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Colorado -14.5 · O/U 66.5
Matchup Prediction
Colorado has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Colorado entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Colorado wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Colorado wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Colorado -14.5
O/U 66.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Colorado · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Oklahoma State 2024 Schedule
Oklahoma State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State-9.5W44–2054.0W44–20OY
Sat 9/7Oklahoma State vs Arkansas-10.5W39–3160.5W39–31ON
Sat 9/14Oklahoma State at Tulsa-17.5W45–1062.5W45–10UY
Sat 9/21Oklahoma State vs Utah+1.0L19–2253.5L19–22UN
Sat 9/28Oklahoma State at Kansas State+6.0L20–4258.0L20–42ON
Sat 10/5Oklahoma State vs West Virginia-2.5L14–3865.0L14–38UN
— Bye Week —
Fri 10/18Oklahoma State at BYU+8.5L35–3853.0L35–38OY
Sat 10/26Oklahoma State at Baylor+7.0L28–3864.5L28–38ON
Sat 11/2Oklahoma State vs Arizona State+5.0L21–4257.0L21–42ON
Sat 11/9Oklahoma State at TCU+10.5L13–3868.5L13–38UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech+5.0L48–5663.5L48–56ON
Fri 11/29Oklahoma State at Colorado+14.5L0–5266.5L0–52UN
Colorado 2024 Schedule
Colorado's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Colorado vs North Dakota State-9.0W31–2659.0W31–26UN
Sat 9/7Colorado at Nebraska+6.5L10–2855.0L10–28UN
Sat 9/14Colorado at Colorado State-7.5W28–958.5W28–9UY
Sat 9/21Colorado vs Baylor-2.5W38–3152.5W38–31OY
Sat 9/28Colorado at UCF+12.5W48–2160.5W48–21OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Colorado vs Kansas State+3.5L28–3154.5L28–31OY
Sat 10/19Colorado at Arizona+2.5W34–757.5W34–7UY
Sat 10/26Colorado vs Cincinnati-6.0W34–2357.0W34–23UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Colorado at Texas Tech-5.0W41–2762.0W41–27OY
Sat 11/16Colorado vs Utah-13.5W49–2443.5W49–24OY
Sat 11/23Colorado vs Kansas-2.5L21–3759.0L21–37UN
Fri 11/29Colorado vs Oklahoma State-14.5W52–066.5W52–0UY
Sat 12/28Colorado vs BYU-3.0L14–3655.5L14–36UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Colorado PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Colorado
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Colorado
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Colorado
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Oklahoma State #52
+0.308
Colorado #35
+0.582
Colorado Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #30
+0.469
Colorado #32
+0.711
Colorado Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #89
0.146
Colorado #13
0.198
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Colorado Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Oklahoma State #42
+7.514
Colorado #28
+8.267
Colorado Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State #63
+0.816
Colorado #48
+0.901
Colorado Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Oklahoma State #113
72.9
Colorado #19
68.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Colorado Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oklahoma State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Oklahoma State
4.1
Colorado
-0.1
Offense Rating
Oklahoma State
19.5
Colorado
15.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Oklahoma State
15.4
Colorado
15.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Colorado Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Oklahoma State #94
0.80
Colorado #36
1.10
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #101
1.50
Colorado #50
0.80
Colorado +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Colorado Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Oklahoma State #1
26.4
Colorado #1
48.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Oklahoma State #124
55.5
Colorado #73
37.5
Colorado +21.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Colorado
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Colorado
95.0 — 3.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Colorado won by 52
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Colorado with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Oklahoma State
Mike Gundy #1
166–79 (68%) · Yr 20 at school
OC Kasey Dunn Yr 3 #1
DC Bryan Nardo Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Colorado
Deion Sanders #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Pat Shurmur Yr 1 #1
DC Robert Livingston Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself