Arkansas State at Michigan Week 3 College Football Matchup Arkansas State at Michigan Matchup - Week 3
Sat, Sep 14 2024 · Week 3 · 🏟 Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI · Turf · 107,601 cap
Arkansas State✈ 577 mi+1 hr TZ
18 28
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Arkansas State
15
ARST +22
Michigan
34
P&R Line Michigan -19
P&R Total O/U 48.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Michigan -22 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Michigan wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Michigan -22
O/U 47.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Michigan 3rd straight Home Game
Arkansas State 2024 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-18.5
Sat 9/7Arkansas State vs Tulsa-9.5W28–2465.5W28–24UN
Sat 9/14Arkansas State at Michigan+22.0L18–2847.5L18–28UY
Sat 9/21Arkansas State at Iowa State+20.5L7–5252.0L7–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arkansas State vs South Alabama+2.5W18–1662.5W18–16UY
Sat 10/12Arkansas State at Texas State+13.5L9–4166.0L9–41UN
Sat 10/19Arkansas State at Southern Miss-7.0W44–2857.0W44–28OY
Sat 10/26Arkansas State vs Troy-8.5W34–3150.0W34–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Arkansas State at Louisiana+14.0L19–5560.0L19–55ON
Sat 11/16Arkansas State at Georgia State+2.5W27–2060.0W27–20UY
Sat 11/23Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-3.0W28–2151.5W28–21UY
Sat 11/30Arkansas State vs Old Dominion+5.5L32–4058.5L32–40ON
Thu 12/26Arkansas State vs Bowling Green+10.5W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Michigan 2024 Schedule
Michigan's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Michigan vs Fresno State-21.0W30–1048.0W30–10UN
Sat 9/7Michigan vs Texas+7.0L12–3142.0L12–31ON
Sat 9/14Michigan vs Arkansas State-22.0W28–1847.5W28–18UN
Sat 9/21Michigan vs USC+4.0W27–2444.0W27–24OY
Sat 9/28Michigan vs Minnesota-10.5W27–2434.5W27–24ON
Sat 10/5Michigan at Washington+1.5L17–2739.5L17–27ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Michigan at Illinois-6.0L7–2144.0L7–21UN
Sat 10/26Michigan vs Michigan State-3.5W24–1739.0W24–17OY
Sat 11/2Michigan vs Oregon+14.5L17–3845.5L17–38ON
Sat 11/9Michigan at Indiana+14.5L15–2047.5L15–20UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Michigan vs Northwestern-10.5W50–635.5W50–6OY
Sat 11/30Michigan at Ohio State+20.5W13–1041.5W13–10UY
Tue 12/31Michigan vs Alabama+16.5W19–1345.5W19–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Michigan PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Arkansas State #81
+0.294
Michigan #113
+0.409
Michigan Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #90
+0.422
Michigan #119
+0.467
Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #80
0.152
Michigan #23
0.188
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Arkansas State #63
+7.439
Michigan #45
+8.799
Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #91
+0.793
Michigan #102
+0.880
Michigan Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Arkansas State #104
72.4
Michigan #52
70.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Arkansas State
-18.0
Michigan
18.3
Offense Rating
Arkansas State
6.3
Michigan
24.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Arkansas State
24.3
Michigan
6.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Arkansas State #113
0.00
Michigan #54
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #115
0.00
Michigan #21
1.00
Michigan +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Arkansas State #1
39.9
Michigan #1
44.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Arkansas State #94
37.3
Michigan #59
45.8
Michigan +4.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan
80.3 — 7.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
11–26 (30%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Keith Heckendorf Yr 3 #1
DC Rob Harley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan
Sherrone Moore #1
1–0 (100%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Kirk Campbell Yr 1 #1
DC Don Martindale Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself