Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 M. M. Roberts Stadium
Hattiesburg, MS
·
Turf
·
36,000 cap
Arkansas State✈ 321 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arkansas State -7
O/U 57.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arkansas State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2024 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Arkansas State vs Tulsa | -9.5W28–24 | 65.5 | W28–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Arkansas State at Michigan | +22.0L18–28 | 47.5 | L18–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Arkansas State at Iowa State | +20.5L7–52 | 52.0 | L7–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +2.5W18–16 | 62.5 | W18–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +13.5L9–41 | 66.0 | L9–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | -7.0W44–28 | 57.0 | W44–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | -8.5W34–31 | 50.0 | W34–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +14.0L19–55 | 60.0 | L19–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | +2.5W27–20 | 60.0 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0W28–21 | 51.5 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Arkansas State vs Old Dominion | +5.5L32–40 | 58.5 | L32–40 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Arkansas State vs Bowling Green | +10.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
Southern Miss 2024 Schedule
Southern Miss's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Southern Miss at Kentucky | +25.5L0–31 | 50.5 | L0–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Southern Miss vs SE Louisiana | -17.5W35–10 | 53.5 | W35–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Southern Miss vs South Florida | +13.0L24–49 | 58.5 | L24–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Southern Miss at Jacksonville State | +6.0L7–44 | 59.5 | L7–44 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Southern Miss vs Louisiana | +17.5L13–23 | 57.5 | L13–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Southern Miss at UL Monroe | +4.5L21–38 | 41.0 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Southern Miss vs Arkansas State | +7.0L28–44 | 57.0 | L28–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Southern Miss at James Madison | +24.0L15–32 | 54.0 | L15–32 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Southern Miss vs Marshall | +13.5L3–37 | 53.5 | L3–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Southern Miss at Texas State | +27.5L3–58 | 56.5 | L3–58 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Southern Miss vs South Alabama | +24.0L14–35 | 54.0 | L14–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Southern Miss at Troy | +17.5L20–52 | 48.5 | L20–52 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arkansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arkansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arkansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arkansas State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arkansas State Edge
Arkansas State +4.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
11–26 (30%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
Southern Miss
Will Hall #1
13–24 (35%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Chip Long
Yr 1
#1
DC
Clay Bignell
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓