Sat, Nov 9 2024
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Cajun Field
Lafayette, LA
·
Turf
·
36,900 cap
Arkansas State✈ 397 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Louisiana entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Louisiana wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Louisiana wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Louisiana -14.0
O/U 60.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Louisiana
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arkansas State 2024 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas | -18.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Arkansas State vs Tulsa | -9.5W28–24 | 65.5 | W28–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Arkansas State at Michigan | +22.0L18–28 | 47.5 | L18–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | Arkansas State at Iowa State | +20.5L7–52 | 52.0 | L7–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Arkansas State vs South Alabama | +2.5W18–16 | 62.5 | W18–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Arkansas State at Texas State | +13.5L9–41 | 66.0 | L9–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Arkansas State at Southern Miss | -7.0W44–28 | 57.0 | W44–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Arkansas State vs Troy | -8.5W34–31 | 50.0 | W34–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Arkansas State at Louisiana | +14.0L19–55 | 60.0 | L19–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Arkansas State at Georgia State | +2.5W27–20 | 60.0 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Arkansas State vs UL Monroe | -3.0W28–21 | 51.5 | W28–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Arkansas State vs Old Dominion | +5.5L32–40 | 58.5 | L32–40 | O | N |
| Thu 12/26 | Arkansas State vs Bowling Green | +10.5W38–31 | 54.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
Louisiana 2024 Schedule
Louisiana's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Louisiana vs Grambling | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | Louisiana at Kennesaw State | -14.5W34–10 | 46.5 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Louisiana vs Tulane | +1.5L33–41 | 53.5 | L33–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Louisiana at Wake Forest | +3.0W41–38 | 59.5 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Louisiana at Southern Miss | -17.5W23–13 | 57.5 | W23–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Louisiana vs App State | -10.0W34–24 | 64.0 | W34–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Louisiana at Coastal Carolina | -6.0W34–24 | 57.0 | W34–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/29 | Louisiana at Texas State | +4.0W23–17 | 60.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Louisiana vs Arkansas State | -14.0W55–19 | 60.0 | W55–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Louisiana vs South Alabama | -6.5L22–24 | 60.0 | L22–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Louisiana vs Troy | -7.5W51–30 | 51.5 | W51–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Louisiana at UL Monroe | -8.5W37–23 | 50.5 | W37–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/7 | Louisiana vs Marshall | -5.0L3–31 | 58.0 | L3–31 | U | N |
| Sat 12/28 | Louisiana vs TCU | +9.5L3–34 | 61.0 | L3–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +0.43
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +27.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisiana
6 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Louisiana
85.8 — 5.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisiana won by 36
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisiana with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
11–26 (30%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Keith Heckendorf
Yr 3
#1
DC
Rob Harley
Yr 3
#1
Louisiana
Michael Desormeaux #1
13–14 (48%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Tim Leger
Yr 3
#1
DC
Jim Salgado
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓