Troy at Arkansas State Week 9 College Football Matchup Troy at Arkansas State Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 26 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 Centennial Bank Stadium Jonesboro, AR · Turf · 30,964 cap
Troy✈ 389 miSame TZ
Away
31 34
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Troy
24
TROY +8.5
Arkansas State
29
P&R Line Arkansas State -4.5
P&R Total O/U 53
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Arkansas State -8.5 · O/U 50.0
Matchup Prediction
Arkansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Arkansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Arkansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arkansas State -8.5
O/U 50.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Troy · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Troy 2nd straight Road Game
Troy 2024 Schedule
Troy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Troy vs Nevada-7.5L26–2844.5L26–28ON
Sat 9/7Troy at Memphis+18.5L17–3857.5L17–38UN
Sat 9/14Troy at Iowa+23.5L21–3839.5L21–38OY
Sat 9/21Troy vs Florida A&M-21.5W34–1248.5W34–12UY
Sat 9/28Troy vs UL Monroe-6.0L9–1346.0L9–13UN
Thu 10/3Troy vs Texas State+14.5L17–3856.0L17–38UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 10/15Troy at South Alabama+10.0L9–2553.0L9–25UN
Sat 10/26Troy at Arkansas State+8.5L31–3450.0L31–34OY
Sat 11/2Troy vs Coastal Carolina+4.0W38–2452.0W38–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Troy at Georgia Southern+7.0W28–2054.0W28–20UY
Sat 11/23Troy at Louisiana+7.5L30–5151.5L30–51ON
Sat 11/30Troy vs Southern Miss-17.5W52–2048.5W52–20OY
Arkansas State 2024 Schedule
Arkansas State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Arkansas State vs Central Arkansas-18.5
Sat 9/7Arkansas State vs Tulsa-9.5W28–2465.5W28–24UN
Sat 9/14Arkansas State at Michigan+22.0L18–2847.5L18–28UY
Sat 9/21Arkansas State at Iowa State+20.5L7–5252.0L7–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Arkansas State vs South Alabama+2.5W18–1662.5W18–16UY
Sat 10/12Arkansas State at Texas State+13.5L9–4166.0L9–41UN
Sat 10/19Arkansas State at Southern Miss-7.0W44–2857.0W44–28OY
Sat 10/26Arkansas State vs Troy-8.5W34–3150.0W34–31ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Arkansas State at Louisiana+14.0L19–5560.0L19–55ON
Sat 11/16Arkansas State at Georgia State+2.5W27–2060.0W27–20UY
Sat 11/23Arkansas State vs UL Monroe-3.0W28–2151.5W28–21UY
Sat 11/30Arkansas State vs Old Dominion+5.5L32–4058.5L32–40ON
Thu 12/26Arkansas State vs Bowling Green+10.5W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Troy PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Troy
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Troy #50
+0.526
Arkansas State #81
+0.350
Troy Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Troy #25
+0.711
Arkansas State #90
+0.464
Troy Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Troy #60
0.166
Arkansas State #80
0.152
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Troy Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Troy #22
+9.053
Arkansas State #63
+7.734
Troy Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Troy #49
+0.922
Arkansas State #91
+0.843
Troy Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Troy #118
73.0
Arkansas State #104
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Arkansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Troy Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Troy
-12.1
Arkansas State
-18.0
Offense Rating
Troy
9.7
Arkansas State
6.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Troy
21.8
Arkansas State
24.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Arkansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Troy #96
0.17
Arkansas State #113
0.67
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Troy #100
1.33
Arkansas State #115
1.17
Arkansas State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Arkansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Troy #1
25.0
Arkansas State #1
33.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Troy #96
54.0
Arkansas State #94
48.7
Arkansas State +8.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Arkansas State
51.5 — 29.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Arkansas State won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Arkansas State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Troy
Gerad Parker #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Reagan Yr 1 #1
DC Nathan Burton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Arkansas State
Butch Jones #1
11–26 (30%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Keith Heckendorf Yr 3 #1
DC Rob Harley Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself