Sat, Aug 31 2024
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium
Mobile, AL
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
North Texas✈ 676 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -6.0
O/U 61.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Texas 2024 Schedule
North Texas's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | North Texas at South Alabama | +6.0W52–38 | 61.5 | W52–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin | -21.5W35–20 | 72.5 | W35–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | North Texas at Texas Tech | +10.5L21–66 | 70.5 | L21–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | North Texas vs Wyoming | -7.0W44–17 | 55.0 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | North Texas vs Tulsa | -7.0W52–20 | 65.5 | W52–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | North Texas at Florida Atlantic | -5.5W41–37 | 58.5 | W41–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | North Texas at Memphis | +10.5L44–52 | 67.5 | L44–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | North Texas vs Tulane | +7.5L37–45 | 70.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | North Texas vs Army | +6.5L3–14 | 68.0 | L3–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/15 | North Texas at UTSA | +1.0L27–48 | 73.0 | L27–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | North Texas vs East Carolina | -2.5L28–40 | 73.5 | L28–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | North Texas at Temple | -10.5W24–17 | 63.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Fri 1/3 | North Texas vs Texas State | +15.5L28–30 | 67.5 | L28–30 | U | Y |
South Alabama 2024 Schedule
South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | South Alabama vs North Texas | -6.0L38–52 | 61.5 | L38–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | South Alabama at Ohio | -1.5L20–27 | 55.5 | L20–27 | U | N |
| Thu 9/12 | South Alabama vs Northwestern State | -36.5W87–10 | 60.5 | W87–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/19 | South Alabama at App State | +8.0W48–14 | 62.5 | W48–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | South Alabama at LSU | +21.0L10–42 | 64.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | South Alabama at Arkansas State | -2.5L16–18 | 62.5 | L16–18 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/15 | South Alabama vs Troy | -10.0W25–9 | 53.0 | W25–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | South Alabama vs UL Monroe | -7.0W46–17 | 45.0 | W46–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | South Alabama vs Georgia Southern | -5.5L30–34 | 60.0 | L30–34 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | South Alabama at Louisiana | +6.5W24–22 | 60.0 | W24–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | South Alabama at Southern Miss | -24.0W35–14 | 54.0 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | South Alabama vs Texas State | +2.5L38–45 | 60.5 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/14 | South Alabama vs Western Michigan | -6.0W30–23 | 53.5 | W30–23 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Alabama
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Texas
14.4 — 63.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Texas won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Alabama, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jordan Davis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Matt Caponi
Yr 2
#1
South Alabama
Major Applewhite #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rob Ezell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Will Windham
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓