Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Apogee Stadium
Denton, TX
·
Turf
·
30,850 cap
Wyoming✈ 725 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
North Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
North Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
North Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
North Texas wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
North Texas -7
O/U 55.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → North Texas
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Wyoming 2024 Schedule
Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Wyoming at Arizona State | +6.5L7–48 | 47.0 | L7–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Wyoming vs Idaho | -6.5L13–17 | 39.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Wyoming vs BYU | +9.5L14–34 | 40.5 | L14–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Wyoming at North Texas | +7.0L17–44 | 55.0 | L17–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Wyoming vs Air Force | +4.0W31–19 | 33.5 | W31–19 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Wyoming vs San Diego State | -1.5L24–27 | 43.0 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Wyoming at San José State | +13.0L14–24 | 53.0 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Wyoming vs Utah State | +2.5L25–27 | 57.0 | L25–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Wyoming at New Mexico | +7.5W49–45 | 60.5 | W49–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/15 | Wyoming at Colorado State | +8.5L10–24 | 47.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Wyoming vs Boise State | +22.0L13–17 | 54.0 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Wyoming at Washington State | +18.5W15–14 | 55.5 | W15–14 | U | Y |
North Texas 2024 Schedule
North Texas's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | North Texas at South Alabama | +6.0W52–38 | 61.5 | W52–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin | -21.5W35–20 | 72.5 | W35–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | North Texas at Texas Tech | +10.5L21–66 | 70.5 | L21–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | North Texas vs Wyoming | -7.0W44–17 | 55.0 | W44–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | North Texas vs Tulsa | -7.0W52–20 | 65.5 | W52–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | North Texas at Florida Atlantic | -5.5W41–37 | 58.5 | W41–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | North Texas at Memphis | +10.5L44–52 | 67.5 | L44–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | North Texas vs Tulane | +7.5L37–45 | 70.5 | L37–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | North Texas vs Army | +6.5L3–14 | 68.0 | L3–14 | U | N |
| Fri 11/15 | North Texas at UTSA | +1.0L27–48 | 73.0 | L27–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | North Texas vs East Carolina | -2.5L28–40 | 73.5 | L28–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | North Texas at Temple | -10.5W24–17 | 63.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Fri 1/3 | North Texas vs Texas State | +15.5L28–30 | 67.5 | L28–30 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Texas Edge
North Texas +34.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
North Texas
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
North Texas
76.6 — 9.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
North Texas won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on North Texas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Aaron Bohl
Yr 1
#1
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jordan Davis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Matt Caponi
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓