North Texas at Memphis Week 8 College Football Matchup North Texas at Memphis Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium Memphis, TN · Turf · 62,380 cap
North Texas✈ 431 miSame TZ
44 52
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Texas
24
Memphis
42
P&R Line Memphis -18
P&R Total O/U 66.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Memphis -10.5 · O/U 67.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors North Texas, while Game Control favors Memphis. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
North Texas wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Memphis wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Memphis -10.5
O/U 67.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Memphis · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 North Texas 2nd straight Road Game
North Texas 2024 Schedule
North Texas's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31North Texas at South Alabama+6.0W52–3861.5W52–38OY
Sat 9/7North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin-21.5W35–2072.5W35–20UN
Sat 9/14North Texas at Texas Tech+10.5L21–6670.5L21–66ON
Sat 9/21North Texas vs Wyoming-7.0W44–1755.0W44–17OY
Sat 9/28North Texas vs Tulsa-7.0W52–2065.5W52–20OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12North Texas at Florida Atlantic-5.5W41–3758.5W41–37ON
Sat 10/19North Texas at Memphis+10.5L44–5267.5L44–52OY
Sat 10/26North Texas vs Tulane+7.5L37–4570.5L37–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9North Texas vs Army+6.5L3–1468.0L3–14UN
Fri 11/15North Texas at UTSA+1.0L27–4873.0L27–48ON
Sat 11/23North Texas vs East Carolina-2.5L28–4073.5L28–40UN
Sat 11/30North Texas at Temple-10.5W24–1763.5W24–17UN
Fri 1/3North Texas vs Texas State+15.5L28–3067.5L28–30UY
Memphis 2024 Schedule
Memphis's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Memphis vs North Alabama-38.5W40–062.5W40–0UY
Sat 9/7Memphis vs Troy-18.5W38–1757.5W38–17UY
Sat 9/14Memphis at Florida State+7.0W20–1252.0W20–12UY
Sat 9/21Memphis at Navy-9.5L44–5647.0L44–56ON
Sat 9/28Memphis vs Middle Tennessee-27.0W24–762.0W24–7UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Memphis vs South Florida-10.0W21–361.0W21–3UY
Sat 10/19Memphis vs North Texas-10.5W52–4467.5W52–44ON
Sat 10/26Memphis vs Charlotte-17.0W33–2856.5W33–28ON
Sat 11/2Memphis at UTSA-7.0L36–4462.0L36–44ON
Fri 11/8Memphis vs Rice-7.5W27–2050.5W27–20UN
Sat 11/16Memphis vs UAB-16.0W53–1862.0W53–18OY
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/28Memphis at Tulane+12.5W34–2454.5W34–24OY
Tue 12/17Memphis vs West Virginia-5.0W42–3760.0W42–37ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Memphis PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Memphis
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Memphis
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Texas #45
+0.423
Memphis #23
+0.491
Memphis Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Texas #64
+0.543
Memphis #42
+0.603
Memphis Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Texas #133
0.113
Memphis #11
0.199
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Memphis Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Texas #69
+7.959
Memphis #14
+8.690
Memphis Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Texas #70
+0.825
Memphis #57
+0.880
Memphis Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Texas #87
71.6
Memphis #12
67.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Memphis Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Memphis Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Texas
-1.3
Memphis
3.2
Offense Rating
North Texas
15.9
Memphis
16.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Texas
17.3
Memphis
13.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Texas #85
2.20
Memphis #11
1.20
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #90
2.00
Memphis #65
0.80
North Texas +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Memphis Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Texas #1
49.1
Memphis #1
72.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #89
31.5
Memphis #4
16.3
Memphis +23.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Memphis
53.3 — 19.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Memphis won by 8
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Eric Morris #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jordan Davis Yr 2 #1
DC Matt Caponi Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
31–19 (62%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Tim Cramsey Yr 3 #1
DC Jordon Hankins Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself