Sun, Nov 17 2024
·
Week 12
·
🏟 University Stadium
Albuquerque, NM
·
Turf
·
39,224 cap
Washington State✈ 973 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Washington State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Washington State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Washington State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Washington State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Washington State -10.5
O/U 72.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Washington State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Washington State 2024 Schedule
Washington State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Washington State vs Portland State | -26.5W70–30 | 57.5 | W70–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Washington State vs Texas Tech | +2.5W37–16 | 64.5 | W37–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Washington State vs Washington | +4.0W24–19 | 56.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/20 | Washington State vs San José State | -13.0W54–52 | 55.5 | W54–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Washington State at Boise State | +6.5L24–45 | 66.0 | L24–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Washington State at Fresno State | -3.5W25–17 | 60.5 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Washington State vs Hawai'i | -18.5W42–10 | 55.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Washington State at San Diego State | -17.0W29–26 | 56.5 | W29–26 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Washington State vs Utah State | -20.5W49–28 | 69.0 | W49–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Washington State at New Mexico | -10.5L35–38 | 72.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Washington State at Oregon State | -11.0L38–41 | 57.0 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Washington State vs Wyoming | -18.5L14–15 | 55.5 | L14–15 | U | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Washington State vs Syracuse | +19.0L35–52 | 58.5 | L35–52 | O | Y |
New Mexico 2024 Schedule
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | New Mexico vs Montana State | +10.5L31–35 | 54.0 | L31–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 8/31 | New Mexico at Arizona | +28.0L39–61 | 60.0 | L39–61 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | New Mexico at Auburn | +25.5L19–45 | 58.5 | L19–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | New Mexico vs Fresno State | +12.0L21–38 | 61.0 | L21–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/28 | New Mexico at New Mexico State | -9.5W50–40 | 54.0 | W50–40 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | New Mexico vs Air Force | -7.0W52–37 | 56.0 | W52–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | New Mexico at Utah State | -1.0W50–45 | 78.5 | W50–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | New Mexico at Colorado State | +3.5L6–17 | 62.0 | L6–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | New Mexico vs Wyoming | -7.5L45–49 | 60.5 | L45–49 | O | N |
| Fri 11/8 | New Mexico at San Diego State | +1.5W21–16 | 65.5 | W21–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | New Mexico vs Washington State | +10.5W38–35 | 72.5 | W38–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | New Mexico at Hawai'i | -6.5L30–38 | 61.5 | L30–38 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Washington State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Washington State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +21.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington State
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Washington State
16.6 — 57.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
New Mexico won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
15–16 (48%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ben Arbuckle
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeff Schmedding
Yr 2
#1
New Mexico
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jason Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nick Howell
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓