Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Martin Stadium
Pullman, WA
·
Turf
·
32,248 cap
San José State✈ 693 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Washington State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Washington State -13
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2024 Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | San José State vs Sacramento State | -2.5W42–24 | 62.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | San José State at Air Force | +1.5W17–7 | 43.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | San José State vs Kennesaw State | -16.5W31–10 | 41.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/20 | San José State at Washington State | +13.0L52–54 | 55.5 | L52–54 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | San José State vs Nevada | -7.0W35–31 | 51.5 | W35–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | San José State at Colorado State | +2.5L24–31 | 55.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/19 | San José State vs Wyoming | -13.0W24–14 | 53.0 | W24–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | San José State at Fresno State | +6.5L10–33 | 55.0 | L10–33 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | San José State at Oregon State | +3.0W24–13 | 58.5 | W24–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | San José State vs Boise State | +14.5L21–42 | 62.0 | L21–42 | O | N |
| Fri 11/22 | San José State vs UNLV | +7.5L16–27 | 59.5 | L16–27 | U | N |
| Fri 11/29 | San José State vs Stanford | -2.5W34–31 | 54.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/24 | San José State vs South Florida | +1.5L39–41 | 66.5 | L39–41 | O | N |
Washington State 2024 Schedule
Washington State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Washington State vs Portland State | -26.5W70–30 | 57.5 | W70–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Washington State vs Texas Tech | +2.5W37–16 | 64.5 | W37–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Washington State vs Washington | +4.0W24–19 | 56.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/20 | Washington State vs San José State | -13.0W54–52 | 55.5 | W54–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Washington State at Boise State | +6.5L24–45 | 66.0 | L24–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Washington State at Fresno State | -3.5W25–17 | 60.5 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Washington State vs Hawai'i | -18.5W42–10 | 55.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Washington State at San Diego State | -17.0W29–26 | 56.5 | W29–26 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Washington State vs Utah State | -20.5W49–28 | 69.0 | W49–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Washington State at New Mexico | -10.5L35–38 | 72.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Washington State at Oregon State | -11.0L38–41 | 57.0 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Washington State vs Wyoming | -18.5L14–15 | 55.5 | L14–15 | U | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Washington State vs Syracuse | +19.0L35–52 | 58.5 | L35–52 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
San José State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +6.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
GC Battle
San José State
31.1 — 38.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Washington State won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Craig Stutzmann
Yr 1
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 3
#1
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
15–16 (48%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ben Arbuckle
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeff Schmedding
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

