San José State at Washington State Week 4 College Football Matchup San José State at Washington State Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 21 2024 · Week 4 · 🏟 Martin Stadium Pullman, WA · Turf · 32,248 cap
San José State✈ 693 miSame TZ
52 54
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
25
SJSU +13
Washington State
34
P&R Line Washington State -9
P&R Total O/U 58.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Washington State -13 · O/U 55.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Washington State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Washington State -13
O/U 55.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → San José State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2024 Schedule
San José State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29San José State vs Sacramento State-2.5W42–2462.5W42–24OY
Sat 9/7San José State at Air Force+1.5W17–743.5W17–7UY
Sat 9/14San José State vs Kennesaw State-16.5W31–1041.5W31–10UY
Fri 9/20San José State at Washington State+13.0L52–5455.5L52–54OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5San José State vs Nevada-7.0W35–3151.5W35–31ON
Sat 10/12San José State at Colorado State+2.5L24–3155.5L24–31UN
Sat 10/19San José State vs Wyoming-13.0W24–1453.0W24–14UN
Sat 10/26San José State at Fresno State+6.5L10–3355.0L10–33UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9San José State at Oregon State+3.0W24–1358.5W24–13UY
Sat 11/16San José State vs Boise State+14.5L21–4262.0L21–42ON
Fri 11/22San José State vs UNLV+7.5L16–2759.5L16–27UN
Fri 11/29San José State vs Stanford-2.5W34–3154.5W34–31OY
Tue 12/24San José State vs South Florida+1.5L39–4166.5L39–41ON
Washington State 2024 Schedule
Washington State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Washington State vs Portland State-26.5W70–3057.5W70–30OY
Sat 9/7Washington State vs Texas Tech+2.5W37–1664.5W37–16UY
Sat 9/14Washington State vs Washington+4.0W24–1956.0W24–19UY
Fri 9/20Washington State vs San José State-13.0W54–5255.5W54–52ON
Sat 9/28Washington State at Boise State+6.5L24–4566.0L24–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Washington State at Fresno State-3.5W25–1760.5W25–17UY
Sat 10/19Washington State vs Hawai'i-18.5W42–1055.5W42–10UY
Sat 10/26Washington State at San Diego State-17.0W29–2656.5W29–26UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Washington State vs Utah State-20.5W49–2869.0W49–28OY
Sat 11/16Washington State at New Mexico-10.5L35–3872.5L35–38ON
Sat 11/23Washington State at Oregon State-11.0L38–4157.0L38–41ON
Sat 11/30Washington State vs Wyoming-18.5L14–1555.5L14–15UN
Fri 12/27Washington State vs Syracuse+19.0L35–5258.5L35–52OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State #71
+0.408
Washington State #19
+0.391
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State #39
+0.571
Washington State #20
+0.565
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State #47
0.175
Washington State #88
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State #96
+7.777
Washington State #23
+8.010
Washington State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State #56
+0.899
Washington State #15
+0.889
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State #81
71.5
Washington State #49
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Washington State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Washington State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
Washington State
-5.4
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
Washington State
11.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
Washington State
16.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #41
0.50
Washington State #83
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #58
0.00
Washington State #88
0.50
San José State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Washington State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
63.9
Washington State #1
70.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #63
21.6
Washington State #18
12.0
Washington State +6.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
GC Battle
San José State
31.1 — 38.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Washington State won by 2
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Washington State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Ken Niumatalolo #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Craig Stutzmann Yr 1 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
15–16 (48%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Ben Arbuckle Yr 2 #1
DC Jeff Schmedding Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself