Sun, Oct 27 2024
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Snapdragon Stadium
San Diego, CA
·
Turf
·
35,000 cap
Washington State✈ 963 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Washington State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Washington State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Washington State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Washington State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Washington State -17.0
O/U 56.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Washington State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Washington State 2024 Schedule
Washington State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Washington State vs Portland State | -26.5W70–30 | 57.5 | W70–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Washington State vs Texas Tech | +2.5W37–16 | 64.5 | W37–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Washington State vs Washington | +4.0W24–19 | 56.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/20 | Washington State vs San José State | -13.0W54–52 | 55.5 | W54–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Washington State at Boise State | +6.5L24–45 | 66.0 | L24–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Washington State at Fresno State | -3.5W25–17 | 60.5 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Washington State vs Hawai'i | -18.5W42–10 | 55.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Washington State at San Diego State | -17.0W29–26 | 56.5 | W29–26 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Washington State vs Utah State | -20.5W49–28 | 69.0 | W49–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Washington State at New Mexico | -10.5L35–38 | 72.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Washington State at Oregon State | -11.0L38–41 | 57.0 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Washington State vs Wyoming | -18.5L14–15 | 55.5 | L14–15 | U | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Washington State vs Syracuse | +19.0L35–52 | 58.5 | L35–52 | O | Y |
San Diego State 2024 Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | San Diego State vs East Texas A&M | -16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | San Diego State vs Oregon State | +5.5L0–21 | 54.5 | L0–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | San Diego State at California | +18.5L10–31 | 48.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | San Diego State at Central Michigan | +2.5L21–22 | 47.5 | L21–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | San Diego State vs Hawai'i | -1.5W27–24 | 47.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | San Diego State at Wyoming | +1.5W27–24 | 43.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | San Diego State vs Washington State | +17.0L26–29 | 56.5 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/1 | San Diego State at Boise State | +24.5L24–56 | 55.5 | L24–56 | O | N |
| Fri 11/8 | San Diego State vs New Mexico | -1.5L16–21 | 65.5 | L16–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | San Diego State at UNLV | +22.0L20–41 | 55.5 | L20–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | San Diego State at Utah State | +5.0L20–41 | 60.0 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | San Diego State vs Air Force | +6.5L20–31 | 43.5 | L20–31 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Washington State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Washington State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +16.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Washington State
30.1 — 49.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington State won by 3
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
15–16 (48%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ben Arbuckle
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeff Schmedding
Yr 2
#1
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Sean Lewis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Eric Schmidt
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓