Sat, Sep 14 2024
·
Week 3
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Lumen Field
Seattle, WA
·
Turf
·
69,000 cap
Washington State✈ 250 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Washington,
while Game Control favors Washington State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
71.6%
Washington wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Washington State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Washington -4
O/U 56.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Washington
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Washington State 2024 Schedule
Washington State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Washington State vs Portland State | -26.5W70–30 | 57.5 | W70–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Washington State vs Texas Tech | +2.5W37–16 | 64.5 | W37–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Washington State vs Washington | +4.0W24–19 | 56.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/20 | Washington State vs San José State | -13.0W54–52 | 55.5 | W54–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Washington State at Boise State | +6.5L24–45 | 66.0 | L24–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Washington State at Fresno State | -3.5W25–17 | 60.5 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Washington State vs Hawai'i | -18.5W42–10 | 55.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Washington State at San Diego State | -17.0W29–26 | 56.5 | W29–26 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Washington State vs Utah State | -20.5W49–28 | 69.0 | W49–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Washington State at New Mexico | -10.5L35–38 | 72.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Washington State at Oregon State | -11.0L38–41 | 57.0 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Washington State vs Wyoming | -18.5L14–15 | 55.5 | L14–15 | U | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Washington State vs Syracuse | +19.0L35–52 | 58.5 | L35–52 | O | Y |
Washington 2024 Schedule
Washington's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Washington vs Weber State | -29.0W35–3 | 51.5 | W35–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Washington vs Eastern Michigan | -25.0W30–9 | 48.5 | W30–9 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Washington vs Washington State | -4.0L19–24 | 56.0 | L19–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Washington vs Northwestern | -11.5W24–5 | 42.5 | W24–5 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/27 | Washington at Rutgers | +1.5L18–21 | 44.5 | L18–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Washington vs Michigan | -1.5W27–17 | 39.5 | W27–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Washington at Iowa | +2.5L16–40 | 41.5 | L16–40 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Washington at Indiana | +5.5L17–31 | 54.0 | L17–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Washington vs USC | +2.0W26–21 | 55.0 | W26–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Washington at Penn State | +13.5L6–35 | 48.0 | L6–35 | U | N |
| Fri 11/15 | Washington vs UCLA | -4.5W31–19 | 47.0 | W31–19 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | Washington at Oregon | +17.5L21–49 | 50.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Tue 12/31 | Washington vs Louisville | -1.0L34–35 | 50.5 | L34–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Washington
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington Edge
Washington +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +11.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Washington State
19.7 — 51.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington State won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
15–16 (48%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ben Arbuckle
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeff Schmedding
Yr 2
#1
Washington
Jedd Fisch #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brennan Carroll
Yr 1
#1
DC
Stephen Belichick
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓