Sat, Oct 19 2024
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Martin Stadium
Pullman, WA
·
Turf
·
32,248 cap
Hawai'i✈ 2,867 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Washington State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Washington State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Washington State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Washington State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Washington State -18.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Hawai'i 2024 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Hawai'i vs Delaware State | -38.5W35–14 | 57.5 | W35–14 | U | N |
| Sat 8/31 | Hawai'i vs UCLA | +13.5L13–16 | 55.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Hawai'i at Sam Houston | +3.5L13–31 | 48.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Hawai'i vs Northern Iowa | -10.0W36–7 | 46.0 | W36–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Hawai'i at San Diego State | +1.5L24–27 | 47.5 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Hawai'i vs Boise State | +21.0L7–28 | 60.0 | L7–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Hawai'i at Washington State | +18.5L10–42 | 55.5 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Hawai'i vs Nevada | -2.5W34–13 | 42.0 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Hawai'i at Fresno State | +12.0W21–20 | 45.5 | W21–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Hawai'i vs UNLV | +12.0L27–29 | 51.5 | L27–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Hawai'i at Utah State | -2.5L10–55 | 62.0 | L10–55 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/30 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico | +6.5W38–30 | 61.5 | W38–30 | O | Y |
Washington State 2024 Schedule
Washington State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Washington State vs Portland State | -26.5W70–30 | 57.5 | W70–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Washington State vs Texas Tech | +2.5W37–16 | 64.5 | W37–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Washington State vs Washington | +4.0W24–19 | 56.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/20 | Washington State vs San José State | -13.0W54–52 | 55.5 | W54–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Washington State at Boise State | +6.5L24–45 | 66.0 | L24–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Washington State at Fresno State | -3.5W25–17 | 60.5 | W25–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Washington State vs Hawai'i | -18.5W42–10 | 55.5 | W42–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Washington State at San Diego State | -17.0W29–26 | 56.5 | W29–26 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/9 | Washington State vs Utah State | -20.5W49–28 | 69.0 | W49–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Washington State at New Mexico | -10.5L35–38 | 72.5 | L35–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Washington State at Oregon State | -11.0L38–41 | 57.0 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Washington State vs Wyoming | -18.5L14–15 | 55.5 | L14–15 | U | N |
| Fri 12/27 | Washington State vs Syracuse | +19.0L35–52 | 58.5 | L35–52 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +0.35
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +9.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Washington State
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Washington State
70.6 — 10.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington State won by 32
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #1
8–18 (31%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Timmy Chang
Yr 1
#1
DC
Dennis Thurman
Yr 1
#1
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
15–16 (48%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Ben Arbuckle
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jeff Schmedding
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓