Wyoming at New Mexico Week 10 College Football Matchup Wyoming at New Mexico Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 2 2024 · Week 10 · 🏟 University Stadium Albuquerque, NM · Turf · 39,224 cap
Wyoming✈ 435 miSame TZ
Away
49 45
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Wyoming
30
New Mexico
31
P&R Line New Mexico -1.5
P&R Total O/U 61
Confidence 86 High
Vegas New Mexico -7.5 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
New Mexico wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
New Mexico -7.5
O/U 60.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → New Mexico · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Wyoming 2024 Schedule
Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Wyoming at Arizona State+6.5L7–4847.0L7–48ON
Sat 9/7Wyoming vs Idaho-6.5L13–1739.5L13–17UN
Sat 9/14Wyoming vs BYU+9.5L14–3440.5L14–34ON
Sat 9/21Wyoming at North Texas+7.0L17–4455.0L17–44ON
Sat 9/28Wyoming vs Air Force+4.0W31–1933.5W31–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Wyoming vs San Diego State-1.5L24–2743.0L24–27ON
Sat 10/19Wyoming at San José State+13.0L14–2453.0L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Wyoming vs Utah State+2.5L25–2757.0L25–27UY
Sat 11/2Wyoming at New Mexico+7.5W49–4560.5W49–45OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Wyoming at Colorado State+8.5L10–2447.5L10–24UN
Sat 11/23Wyoming vs Boise State+22.0L13–1754.0L13–17UY
Sat 11/30Wyoming at Washington State+18.5W15–1455.5W15–14UY
New Mexico 2024 Schedule
New Mexico's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24New Mexico vs Montana State+10.5L31–3554.0L31–35OY
Sat 8/31New Mexico at Arizona+28.0L39–6160.0L39–61OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/14New Mexico at Auburn+25.5L19–4558.5L19–45ON
Sat 9/21New Mexico vs Fresno State+12.0L21–3861.0L21–38UN
Sat 9/28New Mexico at New Mexico State-9.5W50–4054.0W50–40OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12New Mexico vs Air Force-7.0W52–3756.0W52–37OY
Sat 10/19New Mexico at Utah State-1.0W50–4578.5W50–45OY
Sat 10/26New Mexico at Colorado State+3.5L6–1762.0L6–17UN
Sat 11/2New Mexico vs Wyoming-7.5L45–4960.5L45–49ON
Fri 11/8New Mexico at San Diego State+1.5W21–1665.5W21–16UY
Sat 11/16New Mexico vs Washington State+10.5W38–3572.5W38–35OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/30New Mexico at Hawai'i-6.5L30–3861.5L30–38ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
New Mexico PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Wyoming #127
+0.390
New Mexico #14
+0.538
New Mexico Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Wyoming #126
+0.592
New Mexico #77
+0.493
Wyoming Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Wyoming #92
0.145
New Mexico #114
0.135
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Wyoming Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Wyoming #126
+7.705
New Mexico #79
+7.800
New Mexico Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Wyoming #126
+0.868
New Mexico #10
+0.929
New Mexico Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Wyoming #92
72.0
New Mexico #121
73.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Wyoming Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Wyoming
-10.7
New Mexico
1.1
Offense Rating
Wyoming
13.3
New Mexico
17.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Wyoming
24.0
New Mexico
16.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Wyoming #131
0.57
New Mexico #118
0.57
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Wyoming #42
1.43
New Mexico #81
1.29
Wyoming +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Wyoming #1
18.1
New Mexico #1
33.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Wyoming #128
63.7
New Mexico #98
46.3
New Mexico +15.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Wyoming
32.6 — 35.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Wyoming won by 4
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on New Mexico with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Aaron Bohl Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
New Mexico
Bronco Mendenhall #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jason Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Nick Howell Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself