Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Air Force wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Air Force -4
O/U 33.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Air Force
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Air Force 2024 Schedule
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Air Force vs Merrimack | -30.5W21–6 | 47.5 | W21–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Air Force vs San José State | -1.5L7–17 | 43.5 | L7–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Air Force at Baylor | +17.5L3–31 | 40.5 | L3–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Air Force at Wyoming | -4.0L19–31 | 33.5 | L19–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Air Force vs Navy | +10.0L7–34 | 37.0 | L7–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Air Force at New Mexico | +7.0L37–52 | 56.0 | L37–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Air Force vs Colorado State | +6.0L13–21 | 43.5 | L13–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Air Force at Army | +18.0L3–20 | 38.5 | L3–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Air Force vs Fresno State | +9.5W36–28 | 40.5 | W36–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Air Force vs Oregon State | +3.0W28–0 | 44.5 | W28–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Air Force at Nevada | +3.0W22–19 | 44.5 | W22–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Air Force at San Diego State | -6.5W31–20 | 43.5 | W31–20 | O | Y |
Wyoming 2024 Schedule
Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Wyoming at Arizona State | +6.5L7–48 | 47.0 | L7–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Wyoming vs Idaho | -6.5L13–17 | 39.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Wyoming vs BYU | +9.5L14–34 | 40.5 | L14–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Wyoming at North Texas | +7.0L17–44 | 55.0 | L17–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Wyoming vs Air Force | +4.0W31–19 | 33.5 | W31–19 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Wyoming vs San Diego State | -1.5L24–27 | 43.0 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Wyoming at San José State | +13.0L14–24 | 53.0 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Wyoming vs Utah State | +2.5L25–27 | 57.0 | L25–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Wyoming at New Mexico | +7.5W49–45 | 60.5 | W49–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/15 | Wyoming at Colorado State | +8.5L10–24 | 47.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Wyoming vs Boise State | +22.0L13–17 | 54.0 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Wyoming at Washington State | +18.5W15–14 | 55.5 | W15–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Air Force
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Air Force
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Air Force +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Air Force Edge
Air Force +24.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
GC Battle
Wyoming
52.5 — 23.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Wyoming won by 12
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Air Force
Troy Calhoun #1
130–82 (61%)
· Yr 18 at school
OC
Mike Thiessen
Yr 3
#1
DC
Brian Knorr
Yr 3
#1
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Aaron Bohl
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓