Sat, Nov 16 2024
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Canvas Stadium
Fort Collins, CO
·
Turf
·
41,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Colorado State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Colorado State -8.5
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Colorado State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Wyoming 2024 Schedule
Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Wyoming at Arizona State | +6.5L7–48 | 47.0 | L7–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Wyoming vs Idaho | -6.5L13–17 | 39.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Wyoming vs BYU | +9.5L14–34 | 40.5 | L14–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Wyoming at North Texas | +7.0L17–44 | 55.0 | L17–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Wyoming vs Air Force | +4.0W31–19 | 33.5 | W31–19 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Wyoming vs San Diego State | -1.5L24–27 | 43.0 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Wyoming at San José State | +13.0L14–24 | 53.0 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Wyoming vs Utah State | +2.5L25–27 | 57.0 | L25–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Wyoming at New Mexico | +7.5W49–45 | 60.5 | W49–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/15 | Wyoming at Colorado State | +8.5L10–24 | 47.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Wyoming vs Boise State | +22.0L13–17 | 54.0 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Wyoming at Washington State | +18.5W15–14 | 55.5 | W15–14 | U | Y |
Colorado State 2024 Schedule
Colorado State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Colorado State at Texas | +35.5L0–52 | 59.0 | L0–52 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Colorado State vs Northern Colorado | -31.0W38–17 | 52.5 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Colorado State vs Colorado | +7.5L9–28 | 58.5 | L9–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Colorado State vs UTEP | -8.5W27–17 | 49.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | Colorado State at Oregon State | +10.0L31–39 | 47.0 | L31–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Colorado State vs San José State | -2.5W31–24 | 55.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | Colorado State at Air Force | -6.0W21–13 | 43.5 | W21–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Colorado State vs New Mexico | -3.5W17–6 | 62.0 | W17–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Colorado State at Nevada | -2.0W38–21 | 45.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/15 | Colorado State vs Wyoming | -8.5W24–10 | 47.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Colorado State at Fresno State | +3.5L22–28 | 43.5 | L22–28 | O | N |
| Fri 11/29 | Colorado State vs Utah State | -5.5W42–37 | 56.5 | W42–37 | O | N |
| Sat 12/28 | Colorado State vs Miami (OH) | +1.0L17–43 | 42.5 | L17–43 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Colorado State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Colorado State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Colorado State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wyoming +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Colorado State Edge
Colorado State +40.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Colorado State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Aaron Bohl
Yr 1
#1
Colorado State
Jay Norvell #1
8–16 (33%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Matt Mumme
Yr 3
#1
DC
Freddie Banks
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓