Sat, Oct 12 2024
·
Week 7
·
🏟 War Memorial Stadium
Laramie, WY
·
Turf
·
29,181 cap
San Diego State✈ 866 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Wyoming,
while Game Control favors San Diego State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Wyoming wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San Diego State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wyoming -1.5
O/U 43.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
San Diego State 2024 Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | San Diego State vs East Texas A&M | -16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/7 | San Diego State vs Oregon State | +5.5L0–21 | 54.5 | L0–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | San Diego State at California | +18.5L10–31 | 48.5 | L10–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/28 | San Diego State at Central Michigan | +2.5L21–22 | 47.5 | L21–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | San Diego State vs Hawai'i | -1.5W27–24 | 47.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | San Diego State at Wyoming | +1.5W27–24 | 43.0 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | San Diego State vs Washington State | +17.0L26–29 | 56.5 | L26–29 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/1 | San Diego State at Boise State | +24.5L24–56 | 55.5 | L24–56 | O | N |
| Fri 11/8 | San Diego State vs New Mexico | -1.5L16–21 | 65.5 | L16–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | San Diego State at UNLV | +22.0L20–41 | 55.5 | L20–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | San Diego State at Utah State | +5.0L20–41 | 60.0 | L20–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/30 | San Diego State vs Air Force | +6.5L20–31 | 43.5 | L20–31 | O | N |
Wyoming 2024 Schedule
Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Wyoming at Arizona State | +6.5L7–48 | 47.0 | L7–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Wyoming vs Idaho | -6.5L13–17 | 39.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/14 | Wyoming vs BYU | +9.5L14–34 | 40.5 | L14–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Wyoming at North Texas | +7.0L17–44 | 55.0 | L17–44 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Wyoming vs Air Force | +4.0W31–19 | 33.5 | W31–19 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Wyoming vs San Diego State | -1.5L24–27 | 43.0 | L24–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Wyoming at San José State | +13.0L14–24 | 53.0 | L14–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Wyoming vs Utah State | +2.5L25–27 | 57.0 | L25–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Wyoming at New Mexico | +7.5W49–45 | 60.5 | W49–45 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/15 | Wyoming at Colorado State | +8.5L10–24 | 47.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Wyoming vs Boise State | +22.0L13–17 | 54.0 | L13–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Wyoming at Washington State | +18.5W15–14 | 55.5 | W15–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wyoming Edge
Wyoming +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San Diego State Edge
San Diego State +20.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Sean Lewis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Eric Schmidt
Yr 1
#1
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Aaron Bohl
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

