San Diego State at Wyoming Week 7 College Football Matchup San Diego State at Wyoming Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 12 2024 · Week 7 · 🏟 War Memorial Stadium Laramie, WY · Turf · 29,181 cap
San Diego State✈ 866 mi+1 hr TZ
27 24
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San Diego State
21
WYO -1.5
Wyoming
26
P&R Line Wyoming -4.5
P&R Total O/U 46.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Wyoming -1.5 · O/U 43.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Wyoming, while Game Control favors San Diego State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Wyoming wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San Diego State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wyoming -1.5
O/U 43.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Wyoming Coming off BYE
San Diego State 2024 Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.5L0–2154.5L0–21UN
Sat 9/14San Diego State at California+18.5L10–3148.5L10–31UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.5L21–2247.5L21–22UY
Sat 10/5San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.5W27–2447.5W27–24OY
Sat 10/12San Diego State at Wyoming+1.5W27–2443.0W27–24OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/26San Diego State vs Washington State+17.0L26–2956.5L26–29UY
Fri 11/1San Diego State at Boise State+24.5L24–5655.5L24–56ON
Fri 11/8San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.5L16–2165.5L16–21UN
Sat 11/16San Diego State at UNLV+22.0L20–4155.5L20–41OY
Sat 11/23San Diego State at Utah State+5.0L20–4160.0L20–41ON
Sat 11/30San Diego State vs Air Force+6.5L20–3143.5L20–31ON
Wyoming 2024 Schedule
Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Wyoming at Arizona State+6.5L7–4847.0L7–48ON
Sat 9/7Wyoming vs Idaho-6.5L13–1739.5L13–17UN
Sat 9/14Wyoming vs BYU+9.5L14–3440.5L14–34ON
Sat 9/21Wyoming at North Texas+7.0L17–4455.0L17–44ON
Sat 9/28Wyoming vs Air Force+4.0W31–1933.5W31–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Wyoming vs San Diego State-1.5L24–2743.0L24–27ON
Sat 10/19Wyoming at San José State+13.0L14–2453.0L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Wyoming vs Utah State+2.5L25–2757.0L25–27UY
Sat 11/2Wyoming at New Mexico+7.5W49–4560.5W49–45OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Wyoming at Colorado State+8.5L10–2447.5L10–24UN
Sat 11/23Wyoming vs Boise State+22.0L13–1754.0L13–17UY
Sat 11/30Wyoming at Washington State+18.5W15–1455.5W15–14UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
San Diego State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San Diego State #108
+0.351
Wyoming #127
+0.279
San Diego State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+0.404
Wyoming #126
+0.362
San Diego State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San Diego State #131
0.119
Wyoming #92
0.145
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Wyoming Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San Diego State #107
+7.416
Wyoming #126
+7.347
San Diego State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San Diego State #120
+0.814
Wyoming #126
+0.825
Wyoming Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San Diego State #28
69.0
Wyoming #92
72.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San Diego State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San Diego State
2.6
Wyoming
-10.7
Offense Rating
San Diego State
15.6
Wyoming
13.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San Diego State
13.0
Wyoming
24.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Wyoming Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San Diego State #77
0.25
Wyoming #131
0.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #86
0.50
Wyoming #42
2.00
Wyoming +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San Diego State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San Diego State #1
38.6
Wyoming #1
17.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San Diego State #114
39.7
Wyoming #128
68.8
San Diego State +20.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San Diego State
Sean Lewis #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Sean Lewis Yr 1 #1
DC Eric Schmidt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Aaron Bohl Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself