Utah State at Wyoming Week 9 College Football Matchup Utah State at Wyoming Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 26 2024 · Week 9 · 🏟 War Memorial Stadium Laramie, WY · Turf · 29,181 cap
Utah State✈ 324 miSame TZ
27 25
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Utah State
30
WYO +2.5
Wyoming
28
P&R Line Utah State -2
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Utah State -2.5 · O/U 57.0
Matchup Prediction
Utah State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Utah State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Utah State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Utah State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Utah State -2.5
O/U 57.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Utah State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Utah State 2024 Schedule
Utah State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Utah State vs Robert Morris-18.5
Sat 9/7Utah State at USC+30.5L0–4862.5L0–48UN
Sat 9/14Utah State vs Utah+20.5L21–3843.5L21–38OY
Sat 9/21Utah State at Temple-6.5L29–4553.5L29–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Utah State at Boise State+28.0L30–6266.5L30–62ON
Fri 10/11Utah State vs UNLV+19.0L34–5067.5L34–50OY
Sat 10/19Utah State vs New Mexico+1.0L45–5078.5L45–50ON
Sat 10/26Utah State at Wyoming-2.5W27–2557.0W27–25UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Utah State at Washington State+20.5L28–4969.0L28–49ON
Sat 11/16Utah State vs Hawai'i+2.5W55–1062.0W55–10OY
Sat 11/23Utah State vs San Diego State-5.0W41–2060.0W41–20OY
Fri 11/29Utah State at Colorado State+5.5L37–4256.5L37–42OY
Wyoming 2024 Schedule
Wyoming's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Wyoming at Arizona State+6.5L7–4847.0L7–48ON
Sat 9/7Wyoming vs Idaho-6.5L13–1739.5L13–17UN
Sat 9/14Wyoming vs BYU+9.5L14–3440.5L14–34ON
Sat 9/21Wyoming at North Texas+7.0L17–4455.0L17–44ON
Sat 9/28Wyoming vs Air Force+4.0W31–1933.5W31–19OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Wyoming vs San Diego State-1.5L24–2743.0L24–27ON
Sat 10/19Wyoming at San José State+13.0L14–2453.0L14–24UY
Sat 10/26Wyoming vs Utah State+2.5L25–2757.0L25–27UY
Sat 11/2Wyoming at New Mexico+7.5W49–4560.5W49–45OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/15Wyoming at Colorado State+8.5L10–2447.5L10–24UN
Sat 11/23Wyoming vs Boise State+22.0L13–1754.0L13–17UY
Sat 11/30Wyoming at Washington State+18.5W15–1455.5W15–14UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Utah State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Utah State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Utah State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Utah State #34
+0.474
Wyoming #127
+0.319
Utah State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Utah State #69
+0.507
Wyoming #126
+0.400
Utah State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Utah State #81
0.151
Wyoming #92
0.145
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Utah State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Utah State #24
+8.388
Wyoming #126
+7.512
Utah State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Utah State #31
+0.896
Wyoming #126
+0.838
Utah State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Utah State #90
71.9
Wyoming #92
72.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Utah State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Utah State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Utah State
-8.3
Wyoming
-10.7
Offense Rating
Utah State
10.0
Wyoming
13.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Utah State
18.3
Wyoming
24.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Utah State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Utah State #60
0.67
Wyoming #131
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #127
2.50
Wyoming #42
1.50
Utah State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Utah State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Utah State #1
26.0
Wyoming #1
17.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Utah State #91
55.4
Wyoming #128
66.5
Utah State +8.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Wyoming
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Utah State
24.3 — 43.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Utah State won by 2
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Utah State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
23–17 (58%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kyle Cefalo Yr 2 #1
DC Nate Dreiling Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Wyoming
Jay Sawvel #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Aaron Bohl Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself