Sat, Sep 21 2024
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
California✈ 2,213 mi+3 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida State,
while Game Control favors California.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
California wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida State -3
O/U 44.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → California
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
California 2024 Schedule
California's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | California vs UC Davis | -20.5W31–13 | 56.5 | W31–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | California at Auburn | +11.5W21–14 | 52.5 | W21–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | California vs San Diego State | -18.5W31–10 | 48.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/21 | California at Florida State | +3.0L9–14 | 44.0 | L9–14 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/5 | California vs Miami | +10.0L38–39 | 54.0 | L38–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | California at Pittsburgh | +3.5L15–17 | 57.5 | L15–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/19 | California vs NC State | -9.5L23–24 | 46.0 | L23–24 | O | N |
| Sat 10/26 | California vs Oregon State | -13.0W44–7 | 51.0 | W44–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/8 | California at Wake Forest | -7.5W46–36 | 54.5 | W46–36 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | California vs Syracuse | -10.5L25–33 | 58.0 | L25–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | California vs Stanford | -15.0W24–21 | 53.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | California at SMU | +11.5L6–38 | 54.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Wed 12/18 | California vs UNLV | +3.0L13–24 | 45.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
Florida State 2024 Schedule
Florida State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/24 | Florida State vs Georgia Tech | -10.0L21–24 | 54.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Mon 9/2 | Florida State vs Boston College | -16.5L13–28 | 50.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Florida State vs Memphis | -7.0L12–20 | 52.0 | L12–20 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Florida State vs California | -3.0W14–9 | 44.0 | W14–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Florida State at SMU | +6.0L16–42 | 46.0 | L16–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Florida State vs Clemson | +16.5L13–29 | 47.0 | L13–29 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Florida State at Duke | +2.5L16–23 | 43.0 | L16–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/26 | Florida State at Miami | +22.5L14–36 | 55.0 | L14–36 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/2 | Florida State vs North Carolina | +2.5L11–35 | 50.5 | L11–35 | U | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Florida State at Notre Dame | +25.5L3–52 | 44.5 | L3–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Florida State vs Charleston Southern | -33.0W41–7 | 44.5 | W41–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Florida State vs Florida | +17.5L11–31 | 45.5 | L11–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ California
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ California
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ California
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
California Edge
California +38.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
California
Justin Wilcox #1
36–43 (46%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Bloesch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 3
#1
Florida State
Mike Norvell #1
31–17 (65%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Alex Atkins
Yr 3
#1
DC
Adam Fuller
Yr 3
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓