Michigan State at Illinois Week 12 College Football Matchup Michigan State at Illinois Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 16 2024 · Week 12 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Champaign, IL · Turf · 60,670 cap
Michigan State✈ 265 mi-1 hr TZ
16 38
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan State
17
Illinois
31
P&R Line Illinois -14
P&R Total O/U 47.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Illinois -2 · O/U 47.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Michigan State, while Game Control favors Illinois. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Michigan State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Illinois wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Illinois -2
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Illinois Coming off BYE 🛋 Michigan State Coming off BYE
Michigan State 2024 Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.0W16–1045.0W16–10UN
Sat 9/7Michigan State at Maryland+7.5W27–2444.5W27–24OY
Sat 9/14Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.5W40–053.5W40–0UN
Sat 9/21Michigan State at Boston College+4.5L19–2345.5L19–23UY
Sat 9/28Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.5L7–3848.5L7–38UN
Fri 10/4Michigan State at Oregon+22.5L10–3153.0L10–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Michigan State vs Iowa+7.0W32–2039.5W32–20OY
Sat 10/26Michigan State at Michigan+3.5L17–2439.0L17–24ON
Sat 11/2Michigan State vs Indiana+7.5L10–4753.5L10–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Michigan State at Illinois+2.0L16–3847.5L16–38ON
Fri 11/22Michigan State vs Purdue-14.0W24–1749.0W24–17UN
Sat 11/30Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.5L14–4146.5L14–41ON
Illinois 2024 Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Illinois vs Eastern Illinois-28.5W45–050.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/7Illinois vs Kansas+4.5W23–1758.5W23–17UY
Sat 9/14Illinois vs Central Michigan-21.5W30–949.5W30–9UN
Fri 9/20Illinois at Nebraska+9.5W31–2441.5W31–24OY
Sat 9/28Illinois at Penn State+19.5L7–2148.0L7–21UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/12Illinois vs Purdue-22.5W50–4947.5W50–49ON
Sat 10/19Illinois vs Michigan+6.0W21–744.0W21–7UY
Sat 10/26Illinois at Oregon+22.5L9–3854.0L9–38UN
Sat 11/2Illinois vs Minnesota+2.5L17–2547.0L17–25UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Illinois vs Michigan State-2.0W38–1647.5W38–16OY
Sat 11/23Illinois at Rutgers+2.0W38–3148.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/30Illinois vs Northwestern-8.5W38–2842.5W38–28OY
Tue 12/31Illinois vs South Carolina+9.5W21–1750.0W21–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Illinois PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan State #105
+0.308
Illinois #31
+0.439
Illinois Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #79
+0.423
Illinois #16
+0.726
Illinois Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan State #93
0.145
Illinois #117
0.133
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #116
+6.818
Illinois #39
+8.284
Illinois Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan State #86
+0.879
Illinois #45
+0.864
Michigan State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan State #127
73.7
Illinois #46
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Illinois Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Illinois Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan State
-1.7
Illinois
8.0
Offense Rating
Michigan State
15.7
Illinois
18.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan State
17.4
Illinois
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Michigan State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan State #74
0.88
Illinois #108
0.63
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #108
1.50
Illinois #23
0.75
Michigan State +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Illinois Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan State #1
36.6
Illinois #1
45.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #97
43.0
Illinois #35
33.7
Illinois +8.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Illinois
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Illinois
81.8 — 9.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Illinois won by 22
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
18–19 (49%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 3 #1
DC Aaron Henry Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself