Sat, Nov 16 2024
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Champaign, IL
·
Turf
·
60,670 cap
Michigan State✈ 265 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Michigan State,
while Game Control favors Illinois.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Michigan State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Illinois wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Illinois -2
O/U 47.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2024 Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic | -12.0W16–10 | 45.0 | W16–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Michigan State at Maryland | +7.5W27–24 | 44.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M | -42.5W40–0 | 53.5 | W40–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Michigan State at Boston College | +4.5L19–23 | 45.5 | L19–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Michigan State vs Ohio State | +23.5L7–38 | 48.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Michigan State at Oregon | +22.5L10–31 | 53.0 | L10–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Michigan State vs Iowa | +7.0W32–20 | 39.5 | W32–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Michigan State at Michigan | +3.5L17–24 | 39.0 | L17–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Michigan State vs Indiana | +7.5L10–47 | 53.5 | L10–47 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Michigan State at Illinois | +2.0L16–38 | 47.5 | L16–38 | O | N |
| Fri 11/22 | Michigan State vs Purdue | -14.0W24–17 | 49.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Michigan State vs Rutgers | -1.5L14–41 | 46.5 | L14–41 | O | N |
Illinois 2024 Schedule
Illinois's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/29 | Illinois vs Eastern Illinois | -28.5W45–0 | 50.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/7 | Illinois vs Kansas | +4.5W23–17 | 58.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Illinois vs Central Michigan | -21.5W30–9 | 49.5 | W30–9 | U | N |
| Fri 9/20 | Illinois at Nebraska | +9.5W31–24 | 41.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Illinois at Penn State | +19.5L7–21 | 48.0 | L7–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/12 | Illinois vs Purdue | -22.5W50–49 | 47.5 | W50–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/19 | Illinois vs Michigan | +6.0W21–7 | 44.0 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Illinois at Oregon | +22.5L9–38 | 54.0 | L9–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Illinois vs Minnesota | +2.5L17–25 | 47.0 | L17–25 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Illinois vs Michigan State | -2.0W38–16 | 47.5 | W38–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/23 | Illinois at Rutgers | +2.0W38–31 | 48.0 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Illinois vs Northwestern | -8.5W38–28 | 42.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Tue 12/31 | Illinois vs South Carolina | +9.5W21–17 | 50.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Michigan State Edge
Michigan State +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Illinois Edge
Illinois +8.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Illinois
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Illinois
81.8 — 9.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Illinois won by 22
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 1
#1
Illinois
Bret Bielema #1
18–19 (49%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Barry Lunney Jr.
Yr 3
#1
DC
Aaron Henry
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

