Iowa at Michigan State Week 8 College Football Matchup Iowa at Michigan State Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 19 2024 · Week 8 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium East Lansing, MI · Turf · 75,005 cap
Iowa✈ 369 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
20 32
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Iowa
28
IOWA -7
Michigan State
14
P&R Line Iowa -14
P&R Total O/U 42
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Iowa -7 · O/U 39.5
Matchup Prediction
Iowa has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Iowa entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Iowa wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Iowa wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa -7
O/U 39.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Iowa · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Michigan State Coming off BYE
Iowa 2024 Schedule
Iowa's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Iowa vs Illinois State-29.5
Sat 9/7Iowa vs Iowa State-3.0L19–2035.0L19–20ON
Sat 9/14Iowa vs Troy-23.5W38–2139.5W38–21ON
Sat 9/21Iowa at Minnesota-3.0W31–1434.5W31–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/5Iowa at Ohio State+17.0L7–3546.0L7–35UN
Sat 10/12Iowa vs Washington-2.5W40–1641.5W40–16OY
Sat 10/19Iowa at Michigan State-7.0L20–3239.5L20–32ON
Sat 10/26Iowa vs Northwestern-16.5W40–1438.5W40–14OY
Sat 11/2Iowa vs Wisconsin-2.5W42–1040.0W42–10OY
Fri 11/8Iowa at UCLA-6.5L17–2044.5L17–20UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/23Iowa at Maryland-4.0W29–1340.5W29–13OY
Fri 11/29Iowa vs Nebraska-3.5W13–1041.5W13–10UN
Mon 12/30Iowa vs Missouri+1.0L24–2741.0L24–27ON
Michigan State 2024 Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.0W16–1045.0W16–10UN
Sat 9/7Michigan State at Maryland+7.5W27–2444.5W27–24OY
Sat 9/14Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.5W40–053.5W40–0UN
Sat 9/21Michigan State at Boston College+4.5L19–2345.5L19–23UY
Sat 9/28Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.5L7–3848.5L7–38UN
Fri 10/4Michigan State at Oregon+22.5L10–3153.0L10–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Michigan State vs Iowa+7.0W32–2039.5W32–20OY
Sat 10/26Michigan State at Michigan+3.5L17–2439.0L17–24ON
Sat 11/2Michigan State vs Indiana+7.5L10–4753.5L10–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Michigan State at Illinois+2.0L16–3847.5L16–38ON
Fri 11/22Michigan State vs Purdue-14.0W24–1749.0W24–17UN
Sat 11/30Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.5L14–4146.5L14–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Iowa PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Iowa
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Iowa
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Iowa #100
+0.328
Michigan State #105
+0.238
Iowa Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Iowa #93
+0.547
Michigan State #79
+0.411
Iowa Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Iowa #51
0.172
Michigan State #93
0.145
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Iowa #84
+7.823
Michigan State #116
+6.707
Iowa Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Iowa #72
+0.841
Michigan State #86
+0.837
Iowa Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Iowa #7
66.4
Michigan State #127
73.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Iowa Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Iowa Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Iowa
11.5
Michigan State
-1.7
Offense Rating
Iowa
18.6
Michigan State
15.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Iowa
7.1
Michigan State
17.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Iowa Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Iowa #31
2.00
Michigan State #74
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa #71
0.80
Michigan State #108
1.20
Iowa +1.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Iowa Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Iowa #1
53.6
Michigan State #1
36.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Iowa #24
24.6
Michigan State #97
41.8
Iowa +17.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan State
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan State
60.8 — 21.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan State won by 12
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Iowa with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
196–119 (62%) · Yr 26 at school
OC Tim Lester Yr 1 #1
DC Phil Parker Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself