Sat, Nov 23 2024
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Purdue✈ 202 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Michigan State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Michigan State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Michigan State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Michigan State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -14
O/U 49.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Purdue 2024 Schedule
Purdue's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Purdue vs Indiana State | -35.5W49–0 | 52.5 | W49–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/14 | Purdue vs Notre Dame | +11.5L7–66 | 45.5 | L7–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Purdue at Oregon State | +1.5L21–38 | 51.0 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Purdue vs Nebraska | +10.0L10–28 | 47.5 | L10–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/5 | Purdue at Wisconsin | +12.0L6–52 | 44.5 | L6–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/12 | Purdue at Illinois | +22.5L49–50 | 47.5 | L49–50 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/18 | Purdue vs Oregon | +30.0L0–35 | 61.0 | L0–35 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Purdue vs Northwestern | -3.0L20–26 | 44.5 | L20–26 | O | N |
| Sat 11/9 | Purdue at Ohio State | +37.5L0–45 | 55.5 | L0–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/16 | Purdue vs Penn State | +30.0L10–49 | 51.5 | L10–49 | O | N |
| Fri 11/22 | Purdue at Michigan State | +14.0L17–24 | 49.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Purdue at Indiana | +28.5L0–66 | 56.5 | L0–66 | O | N |
Michigan State 2024 Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic | -12.0W16–10 | 45.0 | W16–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Michigan State at Maryland | +7.5W27–24 | 44.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M | -42.5W40–0 | 53.5 | W40–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Michigan State at Boston College | +4.5L19–23 | 45.5 | L19–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Michigan State vs Ohio State | +23.5L7–38 | 48.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Michigan State at Oregon | +22.5L10–31 | 53.0 | L10–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Michigan State vs Iowa | +7.0W32–20 | 39.5 | W32–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Michigan State at Michigan | +3.5L17–24 | 39.0 | L17–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Michigan State vs Indiana | +7.5L10–47 | 53.5 | L10–47 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Michigan State at Illinois | +2.0L16–38 | 47.5 | L16–38 | O | N |
| Fri 11/22 | Michigan State vs Purdue | -14.0W24–17 | 49.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Michigan State vs Rutgers | -1.5L14–41 | 46.5 | L14–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Michigan State Edge
Michigan State +0.56
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Michigan State Edge
Michigan State +17.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan State
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Michigan State
74.6 — 12.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan State won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Michigan State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Purdue
Ryan Walters #1
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Graham Harrell
Yr 2
#1
DC
Kevin Kane
Yr 2
#1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓