Michigan State at Oregon Week 6 College Football Matchup Michigan State at Oregon Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 5 2024 · Week 6 · 🏟 Autzen Stadium Eugene, OR · Turf · 54,000 cap
Michigan State✈ 1,921 mi-3 hr TZ
10 31
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Michigan State
11
Oregon
41
P&R Line Oregon -29.5
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Oregon -22.5 · O/U 53.0
Matchup Prediction
Oregon has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Oregon entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Oregon wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Oregon wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Oregon -22.5
O/U 53.0
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Oregon · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2024 Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.0W16–1045.0W16–10UN
Sat 9/7Michigan State at Maryland+7.5W27–2444.5W27–24OY
Sat 9/14Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.5W40–053.5W40–0UN
Sat 9/21Michigan State at Boston College+4.5L19–2345.5L19–23UY
Sat 9/28Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.5L7–3848.5L7–38UN
Fri 10/4Michigan State at Oregon+22.5L10–3153.0L10–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Michigan State vs Iowa+7.0W32–2039.5W32–20OY
Sat 10/26Michigan State at Michigan+3.5L17–2439.0L17–24ON
Sat 11/2Michigan State vs Indiana+7.5L10–4753.5L10–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Michigan State at Illinois+2.0L16–3847.5L16–38ON
Fri 11/22Michigan State vs Purdue-14.0W24–1749.0W24–17UN
Sat 11/30Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.5L14–4146.5L14–41ON
Oregon 2024 Schedule
Oregon's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31Oregon vs Idaho-31.5
Sat 9/7Oregon vs Boise State-17.5W37–3460.5W37–34ON
Sat 9/14Oregon at Oregon State-16.0W49–1450.0W49–14OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/28Oregon at UCLA-23.5W34–1354.5W34–13UN
Fri 10/4Oregon vs Michigan State-22.5W31–1053.0W31–10UN
Sat 10/12Oregon vs Ohio State+3.5W32–3154.5W32–31OY
Fri 10/18Oregon at Purdue-30.0W35–061.0W35–0UY
Sat 10/26Oregon vs Illinois-22.5W38–954.0W38–9UY
Sat 11/2Oregon at Michigan-14.5W38–1745.5W38–17OY
Sat 11/9Oregon vs Maryland-24.0W39–1858.0W39–18UN
Sat 11/16Oregon at Wisconsin-13.5W16–1349.5W16–13UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/30Oregon vs Washington-17.5W49–2150.5W49–21OY
Sat 12/7Oregon vs Penn State-3.5W45–3751.5W45–37OY
Wed 1/1Oregon vs Ohio State+2.5L21–4155.5L21–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Oregon PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Oregon
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Michigan State #105
+0.240
Oregon #7
+0.523
Oregon Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #79
+0.324
Oregon #7
+0.777
Oregon Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Michigan State #93
0.145
Oregon #9
0.202
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Oregon Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Michigan State #116
+7.023
Oregon #10
+8.739
Oregon Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Michigan State #86
+0.793
Oregon #5
+0.925
Oregon Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Michigan State #127
73.7
Oregon #65
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Oregon Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Oregon Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Michigan State
-1.7
Oregon
24.0
Offense Rating
Michigan State
15.7
Oregon
26.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Michigan State
17.4
Oregon
2.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Oregon Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Michigan State #74
0.50
Oregon #61
3.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #108
1.00
Oregon #57
0.67
Oregon +2.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Oregon Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Michigan State #1
42.2
Oregon #1
72.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Michigan State #97
34.3
Oregon #5
13.7
Oregon +29.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Oregon
79.6 — 7.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oregon won by 21
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Oregon with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
22–5 (82%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Junior Adams Yr 2 #1
DC Tosh Lupoi Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself