Rutgers at Michigan State Week 14 College Football Matchup Rutgers at Michigan State Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Nov 30 2024 · Week 14 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium East Lansing, MI · Turf · 75,005 cap
Rutgers✈ 538 miSame TZ
Away
41 14
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Rutgers
27
Michigan State
21
P&R Line Rutgers -6
P&R Total O/U 47
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Michigan State -1.5 · O/U 46.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Michigan State, while Game Control favors Rutgers. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Michigan State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Rutgers wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -1.5
O/U 46.5
ESPN Bet
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Michigan State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Michigan State 2nd straight Home Game
Rutgers 2024 Schedule
Rutgers's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29Rutgers vs Howard-38.5W44–751.5W44–7UN
Sat 9/7Rutgers vs Akron-24.5W49–1741.5W49–17OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/21Rutgers at Virginia Tech+3.0W26–2345.0W26–23OY
Fri 9/27Rutgers vs Washington-1.5W21–1844.5W21–18UY
Sat 10/5Rutgers at Nebraska+7.0L7–1439.5L7–14UY
Sat 10/12Rutgers vs Wisconsin-1.0L7–4243.5L7–42ON
Sat 10/19Rutgers vs UCLA-4.0L32–3542.5L32–35ON
Fri 10/25Rutgers at USC+14.0L20–4257.0L20–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/9Rutgers vs Minnesota+6.5W26–1944.5W26–19OY
Sat 11/16Rutgers at Maryland+4.5W31–1754.5W31–17UY
Sat 11/23Rutgers vs Illinois-2.0L31–3848.0L31–38ON
Sat 11/30Rutgers at Michigan State+1.5W41–1446.5W41–14OY
Thu 12/26Rutgers vs Kansas State+7.5L41–4451.5L41–44OY
Michigan State 2024 Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic-12.0W16–1045.0W16–10UN
Sat 9/7Michigan State at Maryland+7.5W27–2444.5W27–24OY
Sat 9/14Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M-42.5W40–053.5W40–0UN
Sat 9/21Michigan State at Boston College+4.5L19–2345.5L19–23UY
Sat 9/28Michigan State vs Ohio State+23.5L7–3848.5L7–38UN
Fri 10/4Michigan State at Oregon+22.5L10–3153.0L10–31UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/19Michigan State vs Iowa+7.0W32–2039.5W32–20OY
Sat 10/26Michigan State at Michigan+3.5L17–2439.0L17–24ON
Sat 11/2Michigan State vs Indiana+7.5L10–4753.5L10–47ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/16Michigan State at Illinois+2.0L16–3847.5L16–38ON
Fri 11/22Michigan State vs Purdue-14.0W24–1749.0W24–17UN
Sat 11/30Michigan State vs Rutgers-1.5L14–4146.5L14–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2024 season
Michigan State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Rutgers #84
+0.355
Michigan State #105
+0.361
Michigan State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Rutgers #75
+0.589
Michigan State #79
+0.468
Rutgers Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Rutgers #85
0.147
Michigan State #93
0.145
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Rutgers Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Rutgers #44
+8.243
Michigan State #116
+7.366
Rutgers Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Rutgers #67
+0.846
Michigan State #86
+0.849
Michigan State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Rutgers #63
70.6
Michigan State #127
73.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Rutgers Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Michigan State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Rutgers
-2.0
Michigan State
-1.7
Offense Rating
Rutgers
13.9
Michigan State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Rutgers
15.9
Michigan State
17.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Michigan State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Rutgers #57
0.80
Michigan State #74
0.90
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Rutgers #29
0.60
Michigan State #108
1.40
Michigan State +0.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Rutgers Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Rutgers #1
42.9
Michigan State #1
37.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Rutgers #61
39.8
Michigan State #97
43.8
Rutgers +5.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Rutgers
Greg Schiano #1
19–28 (40%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Kirk Ciarrocca Yr 2 #1
DC Joe Harasymiak Yr 3 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Brian Lindgren Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself