Sat, Sep 28 2024
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Ohio State✈ 203 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ohio State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio State entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Ohio State wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Ohio State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Ohio State -23.5
O/U 48.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio State 2024 Schedule
Ohio State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/31 | Ohio State vs Akron | -50.5W52–6 | 58.5 | W52–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Ohio State vs Western Michigan | -37.5W56–0 | 54.5 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/21 | Ohio State vs Marshall | -40.0W49–14 | 57.0 | W49–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/28 | Ohio State at Michigan State | -23.5W38–7 | 48.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/5 | Ohio State vs Iowa | -17.0W35–7 | 46.0 | W35–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/12 | Ohio State at Oregon | -3.5L31–32 | 54.5 | L31–32 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/26 | Ohio State vs Nebraska | -25.0W21–17 | 48.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Ohio State at Penn State | -3.0W20–13 | 47.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/9 | Ohio State vs Purdue | -37.5W45–0 | 55.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/16 | Ohio State vs Northwestern | -28.0W31–7 | 43.5 | W31–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/23 | Ohio State vs Indiana | -10.5W38–15 | 52.5 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/30 | Ohio State vs Michigan | -20.5L10–13 | 41.5 | L10–13 | U | N |
| Sat 12/21 | Ohio State vs Tennessee | -7.5W42–17 | 47.0 | W42–17 | O | Y |
| Wed 1/1 | Ohio State vs Oregon | -2.5W41–21 | 55.5 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Fri 1/10 | Ohio State vs Texas | -6.5W28–14 | 51.5 | W28–14 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/20 | Ohio State vs Notre Dame | -8.5W34–23 | 45.5 | W34–23 | O | Y |
Michigan State 2024 Schedule
Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8/30 | Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic | -12.0W16–10 | 45.0 | W16–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/7 | Michigan State at Maryland | +7.5W27–24 | 44.5 | W27–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/14 | Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M | -42.5W40–0 | 53.5 | W40–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/21 | Michigan State at Boston College | +4.5L19–23 | 45.5 | L19–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/28 | Michigan State vs Ohio State | +23.5L7–38 | 48.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Fri 10/4 | Michigan State at Oregon | +22.5L10–31 | 53.0 | L10–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/19 | Michigan State vs Iowa | +7.0W32–20 | 39.5 | W32–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/26 | Michigan State at Michigan | +3.5L17–24 | 39.0 | L17–24 | O | N |
| Sat 11/2 | Michigan State vs Indiana | +7.5L10–47 | 53.5 | L10–47 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/16 | Michigan State at Illinois | +2.0L16–38 | 47.5 | L16–38 | O | N |
| Fri 11/22 | Michigan State vs Purdue | -14.0W24–17 | 49.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/30 | Michigan State vs Rutgers | -1.5L14–41 | 46.5 | L14–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2024 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2024 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +2.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +27.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
56–8 (88%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Chip Kelly
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 3
#1
Michigan State
Jonathan Smith #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Brian Lindgren
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓