Hawai'i at Nevada - 2026 Matchup Preview
Hawai

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada logo
Saturday, November 21st 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Mackay Stadium - Reno, NV  (Mountain West)

 
Rainbow Warriors (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (22 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (26 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)
NEV is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -12.5  (SP+ HAW -15)
Projected Score: HAW: 32 - NEV: 19 (51)
HAW Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
HAW Travel: 2565 miles, 3 hrs behind
Wolf Pack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (6 - 19)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#91)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
Hawai'i's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Hawai'i at Stanford-1————
Sat 9/5Hawai'i vs UNLV+1————
Sat 9/12Hawai'i vs New Mexico State-17————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Hawai'i at Wyoming-5————
Sat 10/3Hawai'i vs San José State-16.5————
Sat 10/10Hawai'i at Arizona State+10————
Sat 10/17Hawai'i vs New Mexico-1————
Sat 10/24Hawai'i at Northern Illinois-12————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Hawai'i at UTEP-11————
Sat 11/14Hawai'i vs North Dakota State-2————
Sat 11/21Hawai'i at Nevada-12.5————
Sat 11/28Hawai'i vs Sacramento State-7————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Nevada's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Nevada vs Western Kentucky+12.5————
Sat 9/12Nevada vs Montana State-7.5————
Sat 9/19Nevada at Middle Tennessee+1.5————
Sat 9/26Nevada vs Air Force+6————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Nevada at UTEP+4————
Sat 10/17Nevada at North Dakota State+18————
Sat 10/24Nevada vs San José State-1.5————
Sat 10/31Nevada at UCLA+22————
Sat 11/7Nevada vs New Mexico+14————
Sat 11/14Nevada at Northern Illinois+3————
Sat 11/21Nevada vs Hawai'i+12.5————
Sat 11/28Nevada at UNLV+20.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (96)10544% (49)2913.77 (61)#74 (.17)42% (70)24.143% (74)41% (60)3.35 (39)65.81.31.2
NEV#129 (.02)37% (124)17.637% (123)2.83 (86)15536% (118)1472.67 (133)#94 (.19)44% (93)27.544% (85)43% (96)4.15 (112)45.22.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
HAW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Offense132925.841.2%3.771.3203951052913.737%62%38%44%12%.18
NEV Defense1227.525.243.5%4.151.3 - - - - - 50%48%44%43%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
HAW Defense1324.135.441.7%3.351.2 - - - - - 46%52%43%41%16%.17
NEV Offense1217.619.736.6%2.672.3173021551474.556%42%37%36%17%.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Hawai'i1331:5720.545%60%7.765.81.31.24.82.2329.9
Nevada1230:1917.332%54%5.345.22.31.35.31.6330.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)28.1104.73.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (96)59% (131)7% (11)0.91 (91)
NEV Defense1250% (66)44% (85) - - - - .22 (126)3.08 (104)72% (77)9% (93)1.05 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
HAW Defense1346% (22)43% (74) - - - - .1 (67)3.21 (120)81% (123)9% (77)0.97 (77)
NEV Offense1256% (23)37% (123)34.6155.34.59 (132).07 (92)2.83 (86)72% (68)11% (114)1.04 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)26.941.5290.6710.830 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (29).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (18)
NEV Defense1248% (71)43% (96) - - - - - - 11 (75).18 (38)1.3 (2)32% (65)28% (38).26 (56)6% (86)1.8 (16)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
HAW Defense1352% (112)41% (60) - - - - - - 8 (55).26 (75)1.6 (79)34% (31)31% (87).43 (125)7% (43)2.2 (121)
NEV Offense1242% (114)36% (118)15.225.7147.25.79.710 (121)17 (134)-.02 (135)1.4 (124)34% (109)24% (130)-.05 (136)6% (86)1.6 (136)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -4.39  #87
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 10.56  #89
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 19.95  #98
2026 Talent Rating: 516.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Hawai'i's 2026 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Hawai'i's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #66
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -4.39   Nevada: -13.655

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: 1.7   Nevada: -13.4




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.655  #136
Nevada's Offense Rating: 0.88  #132
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.79  #131
2026 Talent Rating: 492.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #64
Nevada's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Nevada's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4  #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.4

Hawai'i's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 32
Nevada 19

Projected Total Points: 51
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Hawai'i34Nevada13Hawai'i -2.5Hawai'i42.0Over
202311/04Nevada14Hawai'i27Nevada -3.5Hawai'i50.5Under
202210/15Hawai'i31Nevada16Nevada -6.5Hawai'i51.5Under
202110/16Nevada34Hawai'i17Nevada -14Nevada61.5Under
202011/28Hawai'i24Nevada21Nevada -7Hawai'i61.5Under
201909/28Nevada3Hawai'i54Nevada -2Hawai'i64.0Under
201810/20Hawai'i22Nevada40Hawai'i -3Nevada67.0Under
201710/07Nevada35Hawai'i21Hawai'i -4.5Nevada62.5Under
201610/01Hawai'i38Nevada17Nevada -3.5Hawai'i55.5Under
201510/24Nevada30Hawai'i20Nevada -6.5Nevada54.0Under
201410/26Hawai'i18Nevada26Nevada -4Nevada0
201309/21Nevada31Hawai'i9Nevada -14Nevada0
201209/22Hawai'i24Nevada69
201111/12Nevada42Hawai'i28
201010/16Hawai'i27Nevada21
200910/31Nevada31Hawai'i21
200810/26Hawai'i38Nevada31
200711/16Nevada26Hawai'i28
200610/07Hawai'i41Nevada34
200511/05Nevada38Hawai'i28
200410/10Hawai'i48Nevada26
200311/15Nevada24Hawai'i14
200210/12Hawai'i59Nevada34
200109/22Nevada28Hawai'i20
200011/10Hawai'i37Nevada17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada1261 Overs
Hawai'i1369 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams19 - 68 - 44 - 34 - 1
Road Teams6 - 194 - 81 - 43 - 4

(#87) HAW at (#136) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatHAWNEV
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #87 #136
SP+SP+ #68 #116
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #117 #120
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #64
Hawai'i Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Chang great job LY 9-4 but road rec 4-18
(3/3) QB Alejado is back, great Fr season, a top G6 QB
(3/3) RB Barfield (#2 LY) back, depth is ? right now
(3/3) WR lost a lot, Ashlock big/good, Uiliata good as Fr
(3/3) OL a big ? 2/3 starters back, have depth though
(3/3) Def was OK LY but lost a lot, not much portal help
(3/3) DL added 4, maybe FCS guys hit? 4 have exp
(3/3) DBs strength of Def, Palmer good CB, 2 good S
Hawai'i Injury Report
Nevada Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Not sure what we're doing here or why
(3/3) Off a tire fire LY, OC fired, QB benched. Ugly
(3/3) QB Jones played LY as Fr but not well. Is he #1?
(3/3) RB are small and below avg. Anyone emerge?
(3/3) WR added 2 prod FCS (Cheers + Doss) could help
(3/3) OL surprisingly good on paper, 3 starters, depth
(3/3) DE Dylan Labarbera a monster, why still here?
(3/3) DL unit could be Avg, DT's have size, LB are ?
(3/3) DBs have 2 good Safeties, 3 exp'd CBs.
Nevada Injury Report
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffNEV Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #88 #93
ExplosiveExp #27 #39
PPAPPA #62 #94
PowerPwr #89 #131
SP+SP+ #66 #81
Pts POPPO #61 #112
HavocHav #15 #100
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffNEV Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #85
Run ExplRExp #91 #109
PPAExp #118 #126
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #96 #104
Stuff RateStuff #99 #110
TackleTak - NR
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffNEV Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #96
Pass ExplPExl #61 #2
PPAExp #47 #38
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #11 #93
DB HavocDB #39 #86
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffHAW Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #124 #70
ExplosiveExp #102 #87
PPAPPA #129 #74
PowerPwr #132 #98
SP+SP+ #133 #69
Pts POPPO #133 #39
HavocHav #107 #61
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffHAW Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #123 #74
Run ExplRExp #36 #77
PPAExp #92 #67
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #86 #120
Stuff RateStuff #79 #116
TackleTak - NR
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffHAW Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #118 #60
Pass ExplPExl #124 #79
PPAExp #135 #75
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #114 #77
DB HavocDB #86 #43
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat Nevada in 2024 (34-13)
Hawai'i beat Nevada in 2023 (27-14)

  
HAW's OC Anthony Arceneaux (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Tama Uiliata1250%340017.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Devon Rice (Tr)269433.613
Tama Uiliata2804.06
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Cam Barfield2725739.559
Tama Uiliata2823108.330
Devon Tauaefa1410707.634

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Wynden Ho'Ohuli242011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Luther McCoy183240
Noah Wily11100
Jamih Otis543040
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Matagi Thompson160003
Caleb Brown (Tr)20001

NEV's OC Bret Bartalone (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
AJ Bianco274560%188114.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Herschel Turner6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Dominic Kelley236012.610
Carter Jackson84105.110
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaceon Doss (Tr)29657522.784
Donnie Cheers (Tr)44585513.367
Marshaun Brown16164110.322
Gary Givens III12145112.131

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Larry Turner-Gooden280001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Poasa Utu (Tr)82210
Myles Williams31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Snelling140004
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Bishop Turner211002