Western Kentucky at Nevada - 2026 Matchup Preview
Western Kentucky logo

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada logo
Saturday, September 5th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Mackay Stadium - Reno, NV

 
Hilltoppers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tyson Helton (58 - 35)
Avg Score : 30 - 23 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 2 (#104)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Western Kentucky -12.5  (SP+ WKU -15)
Projected Score: WKU: 31 - NEV: 18 (49)
WKU Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
WKU Travel: 1808 miles, 2 hrs ahead
Wolf Pack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (6 - 19)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#91)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
Western Kentucky's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Western Kentucky at Nevada-12.5————
Sat 9/12Western Kentucky at Georgia+30.5————
Sat 9/19Western Kentucky at Indiana+33.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Kentucky's Schedule
Nevada's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Nevada vs Western Kentucky+12.5————
Sat 9/12Nevada vs Montana State-7.5————
Sat 9/19Nevada at Middle Tennessee+1.5————
Sat 9/26Nevada vs Air Force+6————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Nevada at UTEP+4————
Sat 10/17Nevada at North Dakota State+18————
Sat 10/24Nevada vs San José State-1.5————
Sat 10/31Nevada at UCLA+22————
Sat 11/7Nevada vs New Mexico+14————
Sat 11/14Nevada at Northern Illinois+3————
Sat 11/21Nevada vs Hawai'i+12.5————
Sat 11/28Nevada at UNLV+20.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU#76 (.16)43% (58)29.545% (50)2.99 (62)13542% (63)2724.21 (30)#43 (.11)37% (19)22.839% (28)36% (17)2.72 (10)61.31.61.1
NEV#129 (.02)37% (124)17.637% (123)2.83 (86)15536% (118)1472.67 (133)#94 (.19)44% (93)27.544% (85)43% (96)4.15 (112)45.22.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WKU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Offense1329.524.543.1%4.211.6214071352724.242%57%45%42%15%.16
NEV Defense1227.525.243.5%4.151.3 - - - - - 50%48%44%43%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WKU Defense1322.82837.1%2.721.1 - - - - - 46%52%39%36%16%.11
NEV Offense1217.619.736.6%2.672.3173021551474.556%42%37%36%17%.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Kentucky1329:3521.446%33%6.261.31.61.15.51.4228.2
Nevada1230:1917.332%54%5.345.22.31.35.31.6330.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Offense1342% (125)45% (50)31.8134.64.223 (78).08 (86)2.99 (62)81% (11)9% (47)0.91 (93)
NEV Defense1250% (66)44% (85) - - - - .22 (126)3.08 (104)72% (77)9% (93)1.05 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WKU Defense1346% (24)39% (28) - - - - .09 (62)2.79 (52)55% (2)9% (97)1.13 (130)
NEV Offense1256% (23)37% (123)34.6155.34.59 (132).07 (92)2.83 (86)72% (68)11% (114)1.04 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Offense1357% (12)42% (63)2538.1272.27.210.921 (42)13 (60).24 (75)1.5 (90)33% (100)34% (26).36 (45)6% (90)1.9 (105)
NEV Defense1248% (71)43% (96) - - - - - - 11 (75).18 (38)1.3 (2)32% (65)28% (38).26 (56)6% (86)1.8 (16)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WKU Defense1352% (110)36% (17) - - - - - - 9 (55).16 (29)1.5 (61)34% (32)27% (27).23 (42)7% (15)2 (66)
NEV Offense1242% (114)36% (118)15.225.7147.25.79.710 (121)17 (134)-.02 (135)1.4 (124)34% (109)24% (130)-.05 (136)6% (86)1.6 (136)

Western Kentucky's Power Ratings
Western Kentucky's Power Rating: -4.08  #86
Western Kentucky's Offense Rating: 7.05  #105
Western Kentucky's Defense Rating: 16.13  #71
2026 Talent Rating: 642.00  #87
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Western Kentucky's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 2.0
Western Kentucky's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.6  #69
Western Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #56
Western Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 484.36
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: -4.08   Nevada: -13.655

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Kentucky: 1.6   Nevada: -13.4




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.655  #136
Nevada's Offense Rating: 0.88  #132
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.79  #131
2026 Talent Rating: 492.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #64
Nevada's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Nevada's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4  #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Western Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.5
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Western Kentucky's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Western Kentucky 31
Nevada 18

Projected Total Points: 49
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/20Western Kentucky31Nevada16Western Kentucky -8.5Western Kentucky54.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada000 Overs
Western Kentucky111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

(#86) WKU at (#136) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWKUNEV
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #86 #136
SP+SP+ #69 #116
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #87 #120
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #64
Western Kentucky Notes
(3/3) Sneaky good portal class, some P4, #2 in CUSA
Western Kentucky Injury Report
Nevada Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Not sure what we're doing here or why
(3/3) Off a tire fire LY, OC fired, QB benched. Ugly
(3/3) QB Jones played LY as Fr but not well. Is he #1?
(3/3) RB are small and below avg. Anyone emerge?
(3/3) WR added 2 prod FCS (Cheers + Doss) could help
(3/3) OL surprisingly good on paper, 3 starters, depth
(3/3) DE Dylan Labarbera a monster, why still here?
(3/3) DL unit could be Avg, DT's have size, LB are ?
(3/3) DBs have 2 good Safeties, 3 exp'd CBs.
Nevada Injury Report
Western Kentucky on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffNEV Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #58 #93
ExplosiveExp #74 #39
PPAPPA #76 #94
PowerPwr #105 #131
SP+SP+ #56 #81
Pts POPPO #30 #112
HavocHav #59 #100
Western Kentucky Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffNEV Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #50 #85
Run ExplRExp #93 #109
PPAExp #86 #126
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #62 #104
Stuff RateStuff #98 #110
TackleTak - NR
Western Kentucky Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 42%
CategoryCat
WKU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #63 #96
Pass ExplPExl #90 #2
PPAExp #75 #38
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #47 #93
DB HavocDB #90 #86
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffWKU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #124 #19
ExplosiveExp #102 #118
PPAPPA #129 #43
PowerPwr #132 #71
SP+SP+ #133 #78
Pts POPPO #133 #10
HavocHav #107 #59
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffWKU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #123 #28
Run ExplRExp #36 #130
PPAExp #92 #62
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #86 #52
Stuff RateStuff #79 #29
TackleTak - NR
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffWKU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #118 #17
Pass ExplPExl #124 #61
PPAExp #135 #29
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #114 #97
DB HavocDB #86 #15
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

WKU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Western Kentucky beat Nevada last year (31-16)

  
WKU's OC Vacant (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rodney Tisdale Jr.13921266%1432976.8
Brock Glenn (Tr)61060%69206.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sincere Baines (Tr)12371135.877
Ajay Allen9749755.140
Kalib Hicks4412802.914
Rodney Tisdale Jr.5210822.115
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jay Rockwell721132715.770
K.D. Hutchinson6661839.478
Nigel Johnson11295326.867
Cameron Flowers19204110.730

View Western Kentucky's Full Roster

WKU's DC Davis Merritt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Lewis744005
Dave Herard583004
Jakeem Fletcher152000
Venson Sneed141012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zeiqui Lawton133220
Jaylen Lewis744005
Javin Griffin30000
Nigel Johnson10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Lewis744005
Dave Herard583004
Venson Sneed141012

NEV's OC Bret Bartalone (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
AJ Bianco274560%188114.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Herschel Turner6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Dominic Kelley236012.610
Carter Jackson84105.110
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaceon Doss (Tr)29657522.784
Donnie Cheers (Tr)44585513.367
Marshaun Brown16164110.322
Gary Givens III12145112.131

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Larry Turner-Gooden280001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Poasa Utu (Tr)82210
Myles Williams31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Snelling140004
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Bishop Turner211002