Hawai'i at Northern Illinois - 2026 Matchup Preview

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Northern Illinois Huskies

Saturday, October 24th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium - DeKalb, IL (Mountain West)

Rainbow Warriors (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (22 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (26 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)

HAW is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -12 (SP+ HAW -18.5)
Projected Score: HAW: 31 - NIU: 19 (49)
HAW Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
HAW Travel: 4189 miles, 5 hrs behind

Huskies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Rob Harley (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 24 (18 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#91)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
HAW Players
NIU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Hawai'i's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Hawai'i at Stanford	-1	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/5	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+1	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Hawai'i vs New Mexico State	-17	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26	Hawai'i at Wyoming	-5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	Hawai'i vs San José State	-16.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	Hawai'i at Arizona State	+10	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Hawai'i vs New Mexico	-1	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Hawai'i at Northern Illinois	-12	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7	Hawai'i at UTEP	-11	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/14	Hawai'i vs North Dakota State	-2	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/21	Hawai'i at Nevada	-12.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	Hawai'i vs Sacramento State	-7	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Northern Illinois's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Northern Illinois at Iowa	+35	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Northern Illinois vs Illinois State	-7.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Northern Illinois at Arizona	+27.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Northern Illinois at Georgia State	-0	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10	Northern Illinois vs Air Force	+6	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Northern Illinois at Wyoming	+9.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Northern Illinois vs Hawai'i	+12	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/31	Northern Illinois at UNLV	+20.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/7	Northern Illinois at San José State	+3	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/14	Northern Illinois vs Nevada	-3	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/21	Northern Illinois at North Dakota State	+17.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	Northern Illinois vs UTEP	-1.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northern Illinois's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW	#62 (.18)	41% (88)	29	38% (118)	2.8 (96)	105	44% (49)	291	3.77 (61)	#74 (.17)	42% (70)	24.1	43% (74)	41% (60)	3.35 (39)	65.8	1.3	1.2
NIU	#126 (.04)	34% (132)	17.1	38% (116)	2.84 (84)	186	28% (136)	99	3.04 (121)	#86 (.19)	44% (100)	24.3	46% (111)	41% (65)	3.45 (49)	38	0.9	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
HAW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NIU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Offense	13	29	25.8	41.2%	3.77	1.3	20	395	105	291	3.7	37%	62%	38%	44%	12%	.18
NIU Defense	12	24.3	20.8	44.1%	3.45	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	58%	40%	46%	41%	11%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
HAW Defense	13	24.1	35.4	41.7%	3.35	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	43%	41%	16%	.17
NIU Offense	12	17.1	17.8	34.5%	3.04	0.9	15	284	186	99	4.5	65%	34%	38%	28%	13%	.04

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Hawai'i	13	31:57	20.5	45%	60%	7.7	65.8	1.3	1.2	4.8	2.2	3	29.9
Northern Illinois	12	29:13	15	32%	59%	4.3	38	0.9	1.1	3.3	1.2	1	27.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Offense	13	37% (133)	38% (118)	28.1	104.7	3.7	8 (122)	.02 (118)	2.8 (96)	59% (131)	7% (11)	0.91 (91)
NIU Defense	12	58% (132)	46% (111)	-	-	-	-	.17 (107)	3.18 (117)	72% (78)	7% (134)	0.95 (62)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
HAW Defense	13	46% (22)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.1 (67)	3.21 (120)	81% (123)	9% (77)	0.97 (77)
NIU Offense	12	65% (6)	38% (116)	41.4	185.6	4.5	16 (122)	.11 (73)	2.84 (84)	69% (85)	10% (87)	1.11 (15)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Offense	13	62% (3)	44% (49)	26.9	41.5	290.6	7	10.8	30 (14)	12 (127)	.31 (47)	1.6 (61)	34% (113)	33% (29)	.37 (41)	5% (39)	2.2 (18)
NIU Defense	12	40% (5)	41% (65)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (55)	.19 (45)	1.5 (55)	28% (120)	36% (130)	.5 (134)	5% (114)	2.1 (108)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
HAW Defense	13	52% (112)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (55)	.26 (75)	1.6 (79)	34% (31)	31% (87)	.43 (125)	7% (43)	2.2 (121)
NIU Offense	12	34% (131)	28% (136)	10.8	20.3	98.8	4.9	9.2	8 (128)	6 (60)	(134)	1.6 (32)	34% (116)	23% (132)	.13 (127)	3% (4)	2.1 (46)

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: -4.39 #87
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 10.56 #89
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 19.95 #98
2026 Talent Rating: 516.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #103
Hawai'i's 2026 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Hawai'i's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7 #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #66
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: -4.39 Northern Illinois: -13.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Hawai'i: 1.7 Northern Illinois: -16.7

Northern Illinois's Power Ratings
Northern Illinois's Power Rating: -13.26 #130
Northern Illinois's Offense Rating: 2.73 #128
Northern Illinois's Defense Rating: 22.55 #121
2026 Talent Rating: 564.00 #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #103
Northern Illinois's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Northern Illinois's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.7 #128
Northern Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.0 #135
Northern Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1 #74

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.4

Hawai'i's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Hawai'i 31
Northern Illinois 19

Projected Total Points: 49

Northern Illinois Scoring
Offense: 17.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 17.8
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.8

Northern Illinois's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Northern Illinois	0	0	0 Overs
Hawai'i	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#87) HAW at (#130) NIU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	HAW	NIU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#87	#130
SP+SP+	#68	#128
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#117	#102
Blue ChipsBC%	#103	#103

Hawai'i Notes(3/3) Vibes: Chang great job LY 9-4 but road rec 4-18
(3/3) QB Alejado is back, great Fr season, a top G6 QB
(3/3) RB Barfield (#2 LY) back, depth is ? right now
(3/3) WR lost a lot, Ashlock big/good, Uiliata good as Fr
(3/3) OL a big ? 2/3 starters back, have depth though
(3/3) Def was OK LY but lost a lot, not much portal help
(3/3) DL added 4, maybe FCS guys hit? 4 have exp
(3/3) DBs strength of Def, Palmer good CB, 2 good S
Hawai'i Injury Report

Northern Illinois Notes(3/3) Vibes: HC left, only 2 portals? Moved to MWC?
(3/3) QB Holst is back, but there's nothing good here
(3/3) RBs Wright & Johnson productive duo, have depth
(3/3) WR unit may be worst in CFB on paper.
(3/3) OL has 1.5 starters back, have bodies, very young
(3/3) F7 lacks experience, size, production
(3/3) DBs have exp and some depth.
(3/3) Program is flailing and lost. Rather depressing
(2/18) DC Rob Harley Int HC, Hammock left for NFL.
Northern Illinois Injury Report

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	NIU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#88	#100
ExplosiveExp	#27	#40
PPAPPA	#62	#86
PowerPwr	#89	#121
SP+SP+	#66	#74
Pts POPPO	#61	#49
HavocHav	#15	#132

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	NIU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#111
Run ExplRExp	#91	#62
PPAExp	#118	#107
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#96	#117
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#119
TackleTak	-	NR

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	NIU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#49	#65
Pass ExplPExl	#61	#55
PPAExp	#47	#45
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#11	#134
DB HavocDB	#39	#114

Northern Illinois on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	HAW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#132	#70
ExplosiveExp	#57	#87
PPAPPA	#126	#74
PowerPwr	#128	#98
SP+SP+	#135	#69
Pts POPPO	#121	#39
HavocHav	#29	#61

Northern Illinois Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#74
Run ExplRExp	#15	#77
PPAExp	#73	#67
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#84	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#116
TackleTak	-	NR

Northern Illinois Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat	NIU Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#136	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#79
PPAExp	#134	#75
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#87	#77
DB HavocDB	#4	#43

Program Comparison
NIU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

HAW's OC Anthony Arceneaux (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Micah Alejado	285	430	66%	3106	24	9	7.2
Tama Uiliata	1	2	50%	34	0	0	17.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Barfield	80	371	4	4.6	41
Micah Alejado	81	105	1	1.3	30
Devon Rice (Tr)	26	94	3	3.6	13
Tama Uiliata	2	8	0	4.0	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Pofele Ashlock	76	827	8	10.9	47
Cam Barfield	27	257	3	9.5	59
Tama Uiliata	28	231	0	8.3	30
Devon Tauaefa	14	107	0	7.6	34

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	54	3	0	4	0
Elijah Palmer	51	7	0	0	10
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina	37	8	4	3	0
Wynden Ho'Ohuli	24	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina	37	8	4	3
Luther McCoy	18	3	2	4
Noah Wily	1	1	1	0
Jamih Otis	54	3	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Elijah Palmer	51	7	10
Matagi Thompson	16	0	3
Caleb Brown (Tr)	2	0	1

NIU's OC Quinn Sanders (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Josh Holst	78	130	60%	689	4	3	5.3
Brady Davidson	40	87	46%	384	3	3	4.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chavon Wright	196	875	5	4.5	45
Telly Johnson Jr.	124	690	4	5.6	80
Jalen Macon	45	216	5	4.8	36
Lazaro Rogers	33	189	1	5.7	76

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rickey Taylor Jr.	9	134	1	14.9	41
Telly Johnson Jr.	16	97	0	6.1	17
Elijah Porter	1	67	1	67.0	67
George Dimopoulos	11	58	0	5.3	19

View Northern Illinois's Full Roster

NIU's DC Rob Harley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mark Hensley	31	5	1	1	0
Donte Harrison	30	2	0	0	5
Jay'Shon Thomas	19	3	2	5	0
James Finley	15	0	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Jay'Shon Thomas	19	3	2	5
Mark Hensley	31	5	1	1
Landon Tate	3	0	0	0
Malik Armstrong	1	0	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Donte Harrison	30	2	5
Dev'ion Reynolds	13	0	3
James Finley	15	0	2