Air Force at Nevada - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack

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Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Mackay Stadium - Reno, NV  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (139 - 97)
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.4 - 5.6 (#58)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
AFA coming off BYE
NEV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Air Force -6  (SP+ AFA -10)
Projected Score: AFA: 30 - NEV: 24 (54)
AFA Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
AFA Travel: 801 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wolf Pack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (6 - 19)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#91)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
Air Force's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Air Force vs Duquesne-16————
Sat 9/12Air Force vs North Dakota State+4.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Air Force at Nevada-6————
Sat 10/3Air Force vs Navy+5.5————
Sat 10/10Air Force at Northern Illinois-6————
Sat 10/17Air Force vs UNLV+7————
Sat 10/24Air Force at Wyoming+1.5————
Sat 10/31Air Force vs UConn+3————
Sat 11/7Air Force at Army+8————
Sat 11/14Air Force vs San José State-10————
Sat 11/21Air Force vs UTEP-9.5————
Sat 11/28Air Force at New Mexico+10————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 5, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Nevada's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Nevada vs Western Kentucky+12.5————
Sat 9/12Nevada vs Montana State-7.5————
Sat 9/19Nevada at Middle Tennessee+1.5————
Sat 9/26Nevada vs Air Force+6————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Nevada at UTEP+4————
Sat 10/17Nevada at North Dakota State+18————
Sat 10/24Nevada vs San José State-1.5————
Sat 10/31Nevada at UCLA+22————
Sat 11/7Nevada vs New Mexico+14————
Sat 11/14Nevada at Northern Illinois+3————
Sat 11/21Nevada vs Hawai'i+12.5————
Sat 11/28Nevada at UNLV+20.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#19 (.29)47% (18)29.848% (23)3.27 (17)26247% (19)1454.6 (12)#136 (.41)50% (134)30.346% (110)54% (136)4.28 (122)31.310.8
NEV#129 (.02)37% (124)17.637% (123)2.83 (86)15536% (118)1472.67 (133)#94 (.19)44% (93)27.544% (85)43% (96)4.15 (112)45.22.31.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1229.832.247.3%4.61224072621454.877%21%48%47%9%.29
NEV Defense1227.525.243.5%4.151.3 - - - - - 50%48%44%43%14%.19
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1230.332.849.8%4.280.8 - - - - - 49%50%46%54%11%.41
NEV Offense1217.619.736.6%2.672.3173021551474.556%42%37%36%17%.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:522251%71%3.631.310.83.31.3028.2
Nevada1230:1917.332%54%5.345.22.31.35.31.6330.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1277% (2)48% (23)54.4261.54.833 (1).23 (18)3.27 (17)79% (20)7% (6)0.96 (69)
NEV Defense1250% (66)44% (85) - - - - .22 (126)3.08 (104)72% (77)9% (93)1.05 (109)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1249% (54)46% (110) - - - - .31 (136)3.3 (127)76% (102)6% (135)1.21 (133)
NEV Offense1256% (23)37% (123)34.6155.34.59 (132).07 (92)2.83 (86)72% (68)11% (114)1.04 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1221% (135)47% (19)8.113.7145.210.61813 (75)7 (34).55 (2)2.1 (2)24% (3)33% (39).39 (39)2% (3)2 (62)
NEV Defense1248% (71)43% (96) - - - - - - 11 (75).18 (38)1.3 (2)32% (65)28% (38).26 (56)6% (86)1.8 (16)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1250% (84)54% (136) - - - - - - 7 (75).51 (135)1.5 (31)28% (128)40% (136).73 (136)4% (126)2.3 (127)
NEV Offense1242% (114)36% (118)15.225.7147.25.79.710 (121)17 (134)-.02 (135)1.4 (124)34% (109)24% (130)-.05 (136)6% (86)1.6 (136)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -11.81  #117
Air Force's Offense Rating: 10.83  #88
Air Force's Defense Rating: 27.64  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 166.00  #136
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Air Force's 2026 Expected Record: 6.4 - 5.6
Air Force's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2  #80
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.3  #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.81   Nevada: -13.655

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -3.2   Nevada: -13.4




Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.655  #136
Nevada's Offense Rating: 0.88  #132
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.79  #131
2026 Talent Rating: 492.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #64
Nevada's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Nevada's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4  #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Air Force 30
Nevada 24

Projected Total Points: 54
Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Nevada19Air Force22Nevada -3Air Force44.5Under
202209/23Air Force48Nevada20Air Force -24Air Force47.0Over
202111/19Nevada39Air Force41Air Force -1.5Air Force53.5Over
201809/29Air Force25Nevada28Air Force -3.5Nevada64.0Under
201710/20Nevada42Air Force45Air Force -6.5Nevada65.0Over
201411/15Air Force45Nevada38Nevada -2.5Air Force0
201309/28Nevada45Air Force42Nevada -7Air Force0
201210/26Air Force48Nevada31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Nevada223 Overs
Air Force652 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 43 - 41 - 32 - 1
Road Teams4 - 44 - 31 - 23 - 1

(#117) AFA at (#136) NEV
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFANEV
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #117 #136
SP+SP+ #80 #116
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #136 #120
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #64
Air Force Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Calhoun era going wrong way lately
(3/3) QB Szarka back, serviceable but can run. Depth
(3/3) RB Allen back (lead LY), depth is ? Lack a FB
(3/3) WR/TE lost leaders LY, Dawson only one exp'd
(3/3) OL has 2 FT & 3 PT starters, decent unit
(3/3) Def was truly awful LY, can they improve?
(3/3) Pass Def #136 LY, DBs return a lot, will that help?
(3/3) DL is a disaster, at least on paper. Lack size/prod
Air Force Injury Report
Nevada Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Not sure what we're doing here or why
(3/3) Off a tire fire LY, OC fired, QB benched. Ugly
(3/3) QB Jones played LY as Fr but not well. Is he #1?
(3/3) RB are small and below avg. Anyone emerge?
(3/3) WR added 2 prod FCS (Cheers + Doss) could help
(3/3) OL surprisingly good on paper, 3 starters, depth
(3/3) DE Dylan Labarbera a monster, why still here?
(3/3) DL unit could be Avg, DT's have size, LB are ?
(3/3) DBs have 2 good Safeties, 3 exp'd CBs.
Nevada Injury Report
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffNEV Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #18 #93
ExplosiveExp #88 #39
PPAPPA #19 #94
PowerPwr #88 #131
SP+SP+ #59 #81
Pts POPPO #12 #112
HavocHav #2 #100
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffNEV Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #23 #85
Run ExplRExp #69 #109
PPAExp #18 #126
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #17 #104
Stuff RateStuff #2 #110
TackleTak - NR
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 77%, Pass: 21%
CategoryCat
AFA OffNEV Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #96
Pass ExplPExl #2 #2
PPAExp #2 #38
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #6 #93
DB HavocDB #3 #86
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffAFA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #124 #134
ExplosiveExp #102 #123
PPAPPA #129 #136
PowerPwr #132 #137
SP+SP+ #133 #101
Pts POPPO #133 #122
HavocHav #107 #133
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffAFA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #123 #110
Run ExplRExp #36 #133
PPAExp #92 #136
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #86 #127
Stuff RateStuff #79 #133
TackleTak - NR
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNEV OffAFA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #118 #136
Pass ExplPExl #124 #31
PPAExp #135 #135
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #114 #135
DB HavocDB #86 #126
Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Nevada in 2024 (22-19)

  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Liam Szarka7512063%12949510.8
Josh Johnson162857%3744213.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Liam Szarka190922134.964
Owen Allen13174955.743
Kemper Hodges4920734.227
Josh Johnson347112.113
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jonah Dawson12260121.753
Rocco Conti1404.04

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Blake Fletcher1081052
Roger Jones Jr.761010
Dallas Daley451013
Korey Johnson340004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaac Hubert3011571
Grady Forsythe22200
Brody Bujnoch313100
Jaylin Reese101111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Johnson340004
Dallas Daley451013
Blake Fletcher1081052

NEV's OC Bret Bartalone (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
AJ Bianco274560%188114.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Herschel Turner6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Dominic Kelley236012.610
Carter Jackson84105.110
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaceon Doss (Tr)29657522.784
Donnie Cheers (Tr)44585513.367
Marshaun Brown16164110.322
Gary Givens III12145112.131

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Larry Turner-Gooden280001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Poasa Utu (Tr)82210
Myles Williams31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Snelling140004
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Bishop Turner211002