New Mexico State at Hawai'i - 2026 Matchup Preview

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, HI

Aggies (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (7 - 17)
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (20 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0.1 - 0.9 (#102)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)

NMSU 3rd straight Road Game
HAW 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Hawai'i -17 (SP+ HAW -17)
Projected Score: NMSU: 18 - HAW: 35 (52)
HAW Win prob: 90% | Cover: 52%
NMSU Travel: 3210 miles, 4 hrs ahead

Rainbow Warriors (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (22 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)

Matchup
Schedules
NMSU Players
HAW Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	New Mexico State at Florida State	+26.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 8/29	New Mexico State at Florida State	+26.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	New Mexico State at Hawai'i	+17	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26	New Mexico State vs New Mexico	+13.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule

Hawai'i's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Hawai'i at Stanford	-1	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/5	Hawai'i vs UNLV	+1	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Hawai'i vs New Mexico State	-17	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26	Hawai'i at Wyoming	-5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	Hawai'i vs San José State	-16.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	Hawai'i at Arizona State	+10	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Hawai'i vs New Mexico	-1	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Hawai'i at Northern Illinois	-12	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7	Hawai'i at UTEP	-11	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/14	Hawai'i vs North Dakota State	-2	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/21	Hawai'i at Nevada	-12.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	Hawai'i vs Sacramento State	-7	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU	#125 (.05)	37% (123)	21.6	33% (135)	2.13 (134)	77	40% (92)	250	3.21 (114)	#40 (.11)	42% (72)	27.6	41% (52)	44% (108)	3.29 (34)	54.4	2	1.9
HAW	#62 (.18)	41% (88)	29	38% (118)	2.8 (96)	105	44% (49)	291	3.77 (61)	#74 (.17)	42% (70)	24.1	43% (74)	41% (60)	3.35 (39)	65.8	1.3	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
HAW		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	20	36.7%	3.21	2	20	328	77	250	2.6	39%	59%	33%	40%	20%	.05
HAW Defense	13	24.1	17	41.7%	3.35	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	43%	41%	16%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	37.5	42%	3.29	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	41%	44%	16%	.11
HAW Offense	13	29	31	41.2%	3.77	1.3	20	395	105	291	3.7	37%	62%	38%	44%	12%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico State	12	30:05	20.3	42%	41%	6.2	54.4	2	1.9	5	1.5	1	28.4
Hawai'i	13	31:57	20.5	45%	60%	7.7	65.8	1.3	1.2	4.8	2.2	3	29.9

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense	12	39% (130)	33% (135)	29.7	77.4	2.6	9 (132)	-.09 (135)	2.13 (134)	69% (89)	11% (107)	0.91 (88)
HAW Defense	13	46% (22)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.1 (67)	3.21 (120)	81% (123)	9% (77)	0.97 (77)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense	12	50% (61)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	(15)	2.99 (91)	71% (70)	9% (106)	0.92 (45)
HAW Offense	13	37% (133)	38% (118)	28.1	104.7	3.7	8 (122)	.02 (118)	2.8 (96)	59% (131)	7% (11)	0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense	12	59% (7)	40% (92)	23	39.3	250.3	6.4	10.9	17 (86)	16 (34)	.17 (112)	1.4 (110)	36% (130)	27% (109)	.2 (108)	10% (136)	1.9 (102)
HAW Defense	13	52% (112)	41% (60)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (55)	.26 (75)	1.6 (79)	34% (31)	31% (87)	.43 (125)	7% (43)	2.2 (121)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense	12	48% (66)	44% (108)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (31)	.26 (76)	1.5 (43)	31% (69)	27% (26)	.23 (45)	7% (22)	2.1 (104)
HAW Offense	13	62% (3)	44% (49)	26.9	41.5	290.6	7	10.8	30 (14)	12 (127)	.31 (47)	1.6 (61)	34% (113)	33% (29)	.37 (41)	5% (39)	2.2 (18)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -15.84 #131
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 0.52 #134
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 21.36 #114
2026 Talent Rating: 348.00 #132
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #103
New Mexico State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.1 - 0.9
New Mexico State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.5 #123
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.7 #112
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9 #120

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 484.36
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.84 Hawai'i: 1.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -15.5 Hawai'i: 1.7

Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: 1.155 #87
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 10.56 #89
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 19.95 #98
2026 Talent Rating: 516.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #103
Hawai'i's 2026 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Hawai'i's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7 #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #66
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.5

New Mexico State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Hawai'i 35
New Mexico State 18

Projected Total Points: 52

Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Hawai'i	20	New Mexico State	17	Hawai'i -4	New Mexico State	54.5	Under
2022	09/24	New Mexico State	45	Hawai'i	26	New Mexico State -4.5	New Mexico State	53.0	Over
2021	10/23	Hawai'i	48	New Mexico State	34	Hawai'i -18	New Mexico State	62.5	Over
2021	09/25	New Mexico State	21	Hawai'i	41	Hawai'i -17	Hawai'i	63.0	Under
2011	10/23	Hawai'i	45	New Mexico State	34
2010	11/27	New Mexico State	24	Hawai'i	59
2009	11/14	Hawai'i	24	New Mexico State	6
2008	11/08	New Mexico State	30	Hawai'i	42
2007	10/28	Hawai'i	50	New Mexico State	13
2006	10/21	New Mexico State	30	Hawai'i	49
2005	10/16	Hawai'i	49	New Mexico State	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Hawai'i	10	1	2 Overs
New Mexico State	1	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	1 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	3 - 1	1 - 0	2 - 1

(#131) NMSU at (#87) HAW

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NMSU	HAW
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#131	#87
SP+SP+	#123	#68
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#132	#117
Blue ChipsBC%	#103	#103

New Mexico State Injury Report

Hawai'i Notes(3/3) Vibes: Chang great job LY 9-4 but road rec 4-18
(3/3) QB Alejado is back, great Fr season, a top G6 QB
(3/3) RB Barfield (#2 LY) back, depth is ? right now
(3/3) WR lost a lot, Ashlock big/good, Uiliata good as Fr
(3/3) OL a big ? 2/3 starters back, have depth though
(3/3) Def was OK LY but lost a lot, not much portal help
(3/3) DL added 4, maybe FCS guys hit? 4 have exp
(3/3) DBs strength of Def, Palmer good CB, 2 good S
Hawai'i Injury Report

New Mexico State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	HAW Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#123	#70
ExplosiveExp	#56	#87
PPAPPA	#125	#74
PowerPwr	#134	#98
SP+SP+	#112	#69
Pts POPPO	#114	#39
HavocHav	#133	#61

New Mexico State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	HAW Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#135	#74
Run ExplRExp	#88	#77
PPAExp	#135	#67
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#134	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#134	#116
TackleTak	-	NR

New Mexico State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 59%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat	NMSU Off	HAW Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#92	#60
Pass ExplPExl	#110	#79
PPAExp	#112	#75
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#107	#77
DB HavocDB	#136	#43

Hawai'i on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	NMSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#88	#72
ExplosiveExp	#27	#45
PPAPPA	#62	#40
PowerPwr	#89	#114
SP+SP+	#66	#120
Pts POPPO	#61	#34
HavocHav	#15	#71

Hawai'i Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#52
Run ExplRExp	#91	#45
PPAExp	#118	#15
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#96	#91
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#59
TackleTak	-	NR

Hawai'i Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	HAW Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#49	#108
Pass ExplPExl	#61	#43
PPAExp	#47	#76
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#11	#106
DB HavocDB	#39	#22

Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat New Mexico State in 2023 (20-17)

NMSU's OC David Yost (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Trey Hedden	287	419	69%	2967	17	13	7.1
Adam Damante	70	104	67%	711	5	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
James Jones (Tr)	98	958	9	9.8	90
Dijon Stanley	73	297	2	4.1	57
Isaiah Rudison	42	158	2	3.8	36
Terrell Washington Jr. (Tr)	28	98	0	3.5	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyler King	41	588	3	14.3	64
Brodrick Malone	22	242	2	11.0	41
Lyndon Ravare (Tr)	21	237	1	11.3	38
Josiah Thomas (Tr)	28	228	3	8.1	20

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Nicolas Sessions	61	3	0	1	3
Bernock Iya	53	3	0	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tory Gethers	87	5	3	1	2
Henry Davis III	10	1	1	0	1
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Gabe Peterson	32	1	1	9	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Josiah Charles	28	0	0	0	5
Sone Aupiu	68	6	1	3	4
Lorenzo Smith	18	0	0	0	3

HAW's OC Anthony Arceneaux (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Micah Alejado	285	430	66%	3106	24	9	7.2
Tama Uiliata	1	2	50%	34	0	0	17.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Barfield	80	371	4	4.6	41
Micah Alejado	81	105	1	1.3	30
Devon Rice (Tr)	26	94	3	3.6	13
Tama Uiliata	2	8	0	4.0	6

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Pofele Ashlock	76	827	8	10.9	47
Cam Barfield	27	257	3	9.5	59
Tama Uiliata	28	231	0	8.3	30
Devon Tauaefa	14	107	0	7.6	34

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jamih Otis	54	3	0	4	0
Elijah Palmer	51	7	0	0	10
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina	37	8	4	3	0
Wynden Ho'Ohuli	24	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina	37	8	4	3
Luther McCoy	18	3	2	4
Noah Wily	1	1	1	0
Jamih Otis	54	3	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Elijah Palmer	51	7	10
Matagi Thompson	16	0	3
Caleb Brown (Tr)	2	0	1