Nevada at Middle Tennessee - 2026 Matchup Preview
Nevada logo

Nevada Wolf Pack at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Middle Tennessee logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium"" - Murfreesboro, TN

 
Wolf Pack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jeff Choate (6 - 19)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#91)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
Our Line: Middle Tennessee -1.5  (SP+ NEV -2.5)
Projected Score: NEV: 24 - MTSU: 26 (50)
MTSU Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
NEV Travel: 1836 miles, 2 hrs behind
Blue Raiders (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (6 - 17)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (24 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0.1 - 0.9 (#102)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Nevada's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Nevada vs Western Kentucky+12.5————
Sat 9/12Nevada vs Montana State-7.5————
Sat 9/19Nevada at Middle Tennessee+1.5————
Sat 9/26Nevada vs Air Force+6————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Nevada at UTEP+4————
Sat 10/17Nevada at North Dakota State+18————
Sat 10/24Nevada vs San José State-1.5————
Sat 10/31Nevada at UCLA+22————
Sat 11/7Nevada vs New Mexico+14————
Sat 11/14Nevada at Northern Illinois+3————
Sat 11/21Nevada vs Hawai'i+12.5————
Sat 11/28Nevada at UNLV+20.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule
Middle Tennessee's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19Middle Tennessee vs Nevada-1.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/3Middle Tennessee at Kansas+23.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV#129 (.02)37% (124)17.637% (123)2.83 (86)15536% (118)1472.67 (133)#94 (.19)44% (93)27.544% (85)43% (96)4.15 (112)45.22.31.3
MTSU#78 (.16)43% (59)22.445% (56)2.92 (71)10642% (62)2653.2 (117)#108 (.22)45% (108)30.941% (59)48% (131)4.03 (105)67.711.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NEV0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Offense1217.615.536.6%2.672.3173021551474.556%42%37%36%17%.02
MTSU Defense1230.932.544.6%4.031.3 - - - - - 50%48%41%48%16%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NEV Defense1227.529.843.5%4.151.3 - - - - - 50%48%44%43%14%.19
MTSU Offense1222.42443%3.21203711062654.137%62%45%42%18%.16

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Nevada1230:1917.332%54%5.345.22.31.35.31.6330.4
Middle Tennessee1228:4519.637%27%7.367.711.35.21.8028.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Offense1256% (23)37% (123)34.6155.34.59 (132).07 (92)2.83 (86)72% (68)11% (114)1.04 (36)
MTSU Defense1250% (63)41% (59) - - - - .04 (35)2.62 (18)66% (29)10% (70)0.83 (9)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NEV Defense1250% (66)44% (85) - - - - .22 (126)3.08 (104)72% (77)9% (93)1.05 (109)
MTSU Offense1237% (134)45% (56)26.2106.14.111 (132).08 (88)2.92 (71)65% (107)9% (61)0.88 (107)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Offense1242% (114)36% (118)15.225.7147.25.79.710 (121)17 (134)-.02 (135)1.4 (124)34% (109)24% (130)-.05 (136)6% (86)1.6 (136)
MTSU Defense1248% (64)48% (131) - - - - - - 10 (100).41 (126)1.6 (100)29% (107)32% (99).33 (90)6% (57)1.9 (36)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NEV Defense1248% (71)43% (96) - - - - - - 11 (75).18 (38)1.3 (2)32% (65)28% (38).26 (56)6% (86)1.8 (16)
MTSU Offense1262% (2)42% (62)24.841.6264.96.410.723 (103)7 (34).21 (88)1.4 (116)32% (78)29% (81).3 (70)9% (133)1.9 (101)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -18.91  #136
Nevada's Offense Rating: 0.88  #132
Nevada's Defense Rating: 24.79  #131
2026 Talent Rating: 492.00  #120
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #64
Nevada's 2026 Expected Record: 3.8 - 8.2
Nevada's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.4  #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2  #133
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.7  #81

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -18.91   Middle Tennessee: -14.655

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.4   Middle Tennessee: -16.0




Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -14.655  #135
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 3.48  #125
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 26.79  #136
2026 Talent Rating: 414.00  #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Middle Tennessee's 2026 Expected Record: 0.1 - 0.9
Middle Tennessee's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4  #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0  #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 484.36
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Middle Tennessee 26
Nevada 24

Projected Total Points: 50
Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 24
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.5

Middle Tennessee's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Nevada13Middle Tennessee14Nevada -9.0Middle Tennessee50.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Middle Tennessee110 Overs
Nevada001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams1 - 01 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#136) NEV at (#135) MTSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNEVMTSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #136 #135
SP+SP+ #116 #127
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #120 #128
Blue ChipsBC% #64 #103
Nevada Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Not sure what we're doing here or why
(3/3) Off a tire fire LY, OC fired, QB benched. Ugly
(3/3) QB Jones played LY as Fr but not well. Is he #1?
(3/3) RB are small and below avg. Anyone emerge?
(3/3) WR added 2 prod FCS (Cheers + Doss) could help
(3/3) OL surprisingly good on paper, 3 starters, depth
(3/3) DE Dylan Labarbera a monster, why still here?
(3/3) DL unit could be Avg, DT's have size, LB are ?
(3/3) DBs have 2 good Safeties, 3 exp'd CBs.
Nevada Injury Report
Nevada on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffMTSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #124 #108
ExplosiveExp #102 #82
PPAPPA #129 #108
PowerPwr #132 #136
SP+SP+ #133 #128
Pts POPPO #133 #105
HavocHav #107 #67
Nevada Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffMTSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #123 #59
Run ExplRExp #36 #9
PPAExp #92 #35
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #86 #18
Stuff RateStuff #79 #15
TackleTak - NR
Nevada Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NEV OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #118 #131
Pass ExplPExl #124 #100
PPAExp #135 #126
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #114 #70
DB HavocDB #86 #57
Middle Tennessee on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatMTSU OffNEV Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #59 #93
ExplosiveExp #87 #39
PPAPPA #78 #94
PowerPwr #125 #131
SP+SP+ #110 #81
Pts POPPO #117 #112
HavocHav #115 #100
Middle Tennessee Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffNEV Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #85
Run ExplRExp #107 #109
PPAExp #88 #126
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #71 #104
Stuff RateStuff #117 #110
TackleTak - NR
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCatMTSU OffNEV Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #62 #96
Pass ExplPExl #116 #2
PPAExp #88 #38
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #61 #93
DB HavocDB #133 #86
Program Comparison
MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Johnny Red"" Floyd Stadium""
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Middle Tennessee beat Nevada last year (14-13)

  
NEV's OC Bret Bartalone (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carter Jones11117364%1001685.8
AJ Bianco274560%188114.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Herschel Turner6935305.164
Ky Woods1910305.428
Dominic Kelley236012.610
Carter Jackson84105.110
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaceon Doss (Tr)29657522.784
Donnie Cheers (Tr)44585513.367
Marshaun Brown16164110.322
Gary Givens III12145112.131

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Larry Turner-Gooden280001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Labarbera8817730
Jeremy Naborne354220
Poasa Utu (Tr)82210
Myles Williams31100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryson Snelling140004
Joshua Scott (Tr)290004
Bishop Turner211002

MTSU's OC Anthony Scelfo (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Roman Gagliano7813558%1011707.5
Stanley Anderson-Lofton11100%110011.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Taylor2619927.764
Roman Gagliano3816024.264
Antonio Martin1912916.837
Cam'Ron Lacy42105.319
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam'Ron Lacy38529313.968
AJ Jones2821657.727
Landon Collins16187111.748
DJ Taylor75417.719

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Smith381002
Kalen Woods361000
Jackson Lowe362004
Reggie Johnson3510472
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reggie Johnson3510472
Zeion Simpson-Smith193330
Ashton Taylor (Tr)41131
Christofer Noble221100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Lowe362004
Korey Smith381002
Reggie Johnson3510472