New Mexico at Hawai'i - 2026 Matchup Preview
New Mexico logo

New Mexico Lobos at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Hawai
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex - Honolulu, HI  (Mountain West)

 
Lobos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Jason Eck (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.5 - 3.5 (#40)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
UNM coming off BYE
HAW is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Hawai'i -1  (SP+ HAW -1)

Projected Score: UNM: 25 - HAW: 26 (51)
HAW Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UNM Travel: 3223 miles, 4 hrs ahead
Rainbow Warriors (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Timmy Chang (22 - 29)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.1 - 3.9 (#35)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 10)
 
New Mexico's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5New Mexico vs Central Michigan-10.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19New Mexico at Oklahoma+24.5
Sat 9/26New Mexico at New Mexico State-13.5
Sat 10/3New Mexico vs UTEP-17.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/17New Mexico at Hawai'i+1
Sat 10/24New Mexico vs North Dakota State-3.5
Sat 10/31New Mexico at San José State-13
Sat 11/7New Mexico at Nevada-14
Sat 11/14New Mexico vs UNLV-0.5
Sat 11/21New Mexico at Wyoming-6.5
Sat 11/28New Mexico vs Air Force-10

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 7
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule
Hawai'i's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Hawai'i at Stanford-1
Sat 9/5Hawai'i vs UNLV+1
Sat 9/12Hawai'i vs New Mexico State-17
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/26Hawai'i at Wyoming-5
Sat 10/3Hawai'i vs San José State-16.5
Sat 10/10Hawai'i at Arizona State+10
Sat 10/17Hawai'i vs New Mexico-1
Sat 10/24Hawai'i at Northern Illinois-12
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Hawai'i at UTEP-11
Sat 11/14Hawai'i vs North Dakota State-2
Sat 11/21Hawai'i at Nevada-12.5
Sat 11/28Hawai'i vs Sacramento State-7

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 8
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Hawai'i's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM#65 (.18)42% (78)27.143% (77)3.15 (32)15242% (69)2053.96 (44)#47 (.11)40% (50)22.340% (49)40% (58)3.12 (24)48.51.81.3
HAW#62 (.18)41% (88)2938% (118)2.8 (96)10544% (49)2913.77 (61)#74 (.17)42% (70)24.143% (74)41% (60)3.35 (39)65.81.31.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNM0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
HAW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Offense1327.127.541.8%3.961.8193571522054.353%45%43%42%14%.18
HAW Defense1324.11741.7%3.351.2 - - - - - 46%52%43%41%16%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNM Defense1322.326.340%3.121.3 - - - - - 47%52%40%40%17%.11
HAW Offense13293141.2%3.771.3203951052913.737%62%38%44%12%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico1330:0319.439%66%5.848.51.81.35.92.8328.4
Hawai'i1331:5720.545%60%7.765.81.31.24.82.2329.9
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Offense1353% (41)43% (77)35.7152.44.322 (49).14 (54)3.15 (32)75% (45)9% (67)0.99 (59)
HAW Defense1346% (22)43% (74) - - - - .1 (67)3.21 (120)81% (123)9% (77)0.97 (77)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNM Defense1347% (35)40% (49) - - - - .04 (36)2.63 (21)83% (128)11% (32)0.97 (74)
HAW Offense1337% (133)38% (118)28.1104.73.78 (122).02 (118)2.8 (96)59% (131)7% (11)0.91 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Offense1345% (97)42% (69)17.526.9204.87.611.717 (61)10 (119).27 (63)1.6 (50)30% (50)30% (71).33 (59)5% (22)1.9 (112)
HAW Defense1352% (112)41% (60) - - - - - - 8 (55).26 (75)1.6 (79)34% (31)31% (87).43 (125)7% (43)2.2 (121)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNM Defense1352% (108)40% (58) - - - - - - 9 (100).24 (64)1.5 (42)34% (33)28% (42).27 (59)6% (52)1.9 (38)
HAW Offense1362% (3)44% (49)26.941.5290.6710.830 (14)12 (127).31 (47)1.6 (61)34% (113)33% (29).37 (41)5% (39)2.2 (18)

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -0.44  #78
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 12.81  #70
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 18.25  #85
2026 Talent Rating: 526.00  #116
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #64
New Mexico's 2026 Expected Record: 7.5 - 3.5
New Mexico's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.9  #73
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.1  #66

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -0.44   Hawai'i: 1.155

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: 0.9   Hawai'i: 1.7




Hawai'i's Power Ratings
Hawai'i's Power Rating: 1.155  #87
Hawai'i's Offense Rating: 10.56  #89
Hawai'i's Defense Rating: 19.95  #98
2026 Talent Rating: 516.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Hawai'i's 2026 Expected Record: 8.1 - 3.9
Hawai'i's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.7  #68
Hawai'i's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #66
Hawai'i's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #69

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 486.6
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 27.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.5
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.3

New Mexico's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Hawai'i 26
New Mexico 25


Projected Total Points: 51
Hawai'i Scoring
Offense: 29 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Hawai'i's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30Hawai'i38New Mexico30New Mexico -6.5Hawai'i61.5Over
202310/21New Mexico42Hawai'i21Hawai'i -1.5New Mexico60.0Over
202011/07Hawai'i39New Mexico33Hawai'i -15New Mexico61.5Over
201910/26New Mexico31Hawai'i45Hawai'i -10Hawai'i70.5Over
201610/29Hawai'i21New Mexico28Hawai'i -3New Mexico65.5Under
201510/17New Mexico28Hawai'i27New Mexico -3.5Hawai'i51.5Over
201210/14Hawai'i23New Mexico35
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Hawai'i335 Overs
New Mexico431 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 32 - 40 - 32 - 1
Road Teams3 - 44 - 21 - 23 - 0

(#78) UNM at (#87) HAW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNMHAW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #78 #87
SP+SP+ #73 #68
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #116 #117
Blue ChipsBC% #64 #103
New Mexico Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Eck a fast rising HC, have talent, lack exp
(3/3) OL has 4 solid starters returning, depth is light
(3/3) DL looks OK, 5 with exp + 3 portals. Big DTs
(3/3) DBs have good exp, 4 portal adds. Lack dudes
(3/3) Big crootin class of 25, solid future foundation
(3/3) QB Jack Layne back, decent LY but TD/TO is ?
(3/3) RB rebuild, have 2 w exp but not a lot of prod
(3/3) WR Williams (FCS) + Omeire portals help rebuild
New Mexico Injury Report
Hawai'i Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Chang great job LY 9-4 but road rec 4-18
(3/3) QB Alejado is back, great Fr season, a top G6 QB
(3/3) RB Barfield (#2 LY) back, depth is ? right now
(3/3) WR lost a lot, Ashlock big/good, Uiliata good as Fr
(3/3) OL a big ? 2/3 starters back, have depth though
(3/3) Def was OK LY but lost a lot, not much portal help
(3/3) DL added 4, maybe FCS guys hit? 4 have exp
(3/3) DBs strength of Def, Palmer good CB, 2 good S
Hawai'i Injury Report
New Mexico on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffHAW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #78 #70
ExplosiveExp #55 #87
PPAPPA #65 #74
PowerPwr #70 #98
SP+SP+ #82 #69
Pts POPPO #44 #39
HavocHav #45 #61
New Mexico Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffHAW Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #77 #74
Run ExplRExp #59 #77
PPAExp #54 #67
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #32 #120
Stuff RateStuff #11 #116
TackleTak - NR
New Mexico Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
UNM OffHAW Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #60
Pass ExplPExl #50 #79
PPAExp #63 #75
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #67 #77
DB HavocDB #22 #43
Hawai'i on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffUNM Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #88 #50
ExplosiveExp #27 #58
PPAPPA #62 #47
PowerPwr #89 #85
SP+SP+ #66 #66
Pts POPPO #61 #24
HavocHav #15 #36
Hawai'i Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat
HAW OffUNM Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #49
Run ExplRExp #91 #74
PPAExp #118 #36
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #96 #21
Stuff RateStuff #99 #18
TackleTak - NR
Hawai'i Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCatHAW OffUNM Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #49 #58
Pass ExplPExl #61 #42
PPAExp #47 #64
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #11 #32
DB HavocDB #39 #52
Program Comparison
HAW 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

UNM 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'26 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Hawai'i beat New Mexico in 2024 (38-30)
New Mexico beat Hawai'i in 2023 (42-21)

  
UNM's OC Luke Schleusner (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jack Layne21332765%248613107.6
Luke Moga (Tr)3560%580011.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Scottre Humphrey7734954.561
Kiefer Sibley4527456.145
Jack Layne8715241.754
Luke Moga (Tr)349016.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Miles Williams (Tr)41524212.846
Troy Omeire (Tr)32521516.368
Cade Keith20253312.745
Shawn Miller15199113.342

View New Mexico's Full Roster

UNM's DC Spence Nowinsky (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxton Eck1287232
Tavian Combs721103
Mercury Swaim527212
Frankie Edwards471000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mercury Swaim527212
Darren Agu304221
Jaxton Eck1287232
Jalen McIver103211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drew Speech100008
Kevin Longstreet40004
Ormanie Arnold (Tr)150003

HAW's OC Anthony Arceneaux (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Micah Alejado28543066%31062497.2
Tama Uiliata1250%340017.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Barfield8037144.641
Micah Alejado8110511.330
Devon Rice (Tr)269433.613
Tama Uiliata2804.06
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Pofele Ashlock76827810.947
Cam Barfield2725739.559
Tama Uiliata2823108.330
Devon Tauaefa1410707.634

View Hawai'i's Full Roster

HAW's DC Dennis Thurman (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamih Otis543040
Elijah Palmer5170010
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Wynden Ho'Ohuli242011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lesterlaisene Lagafuaina378430
Luther McCoy183240
Noah Wily11100
Jamih Otis543040
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Palmer5170010
Matagi Thompson160003
Caleb Brown (Tr)20001